703
FXUS61 KCLE 192357
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
757 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WHICH MAY RESULT IN RISES
ON AREA RIVERS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
LINGERING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE
REGION DESPITE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING OVERHEAD
FROM THE WEST. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA WILL
DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD. COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS CONFINED TO SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.
THE MAJORITY OF SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY
WILL BE DRY AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS THE REGION. BY SUNDAY NIGHT
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST
BEFORE TRACKING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
AREA PWATS AVERAGING ~1.75 INCHES ARE FORECAST WHICH IS WELL
ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR MID/LATE JUNE. CURRENT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY RANGE BETWEEN 1-1.5 INCHES
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1.5-1.75 INCHES ACROSS THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORM AND/OR STORMS THAT TRAIN
OVER THE SAME AREA. RISES ON AREA RIVERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW RIVERS RISING INTO MINOR FLOOD STAGE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AS WE NEAR CLOSER TO MONDAY. WPC EXPANDED THE SLIGHT
RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TO INCLUDE THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. DIURNAL
CUMULUS IS WANING THIS EVENING AND WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
STARTING TO DIMINISH WITH THE STABILIZING NIGHTTIME ATMOSPHERE.
SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER AND WEST OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL PUSH
EAST TONIGHT AND SPREAD ACROSS THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. FOR SATURDAY, CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA WILL LOWER TO
BETWEEN 4 AND 8 KFT DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. SOME ISO/SCT
SHOWERS AND SOME VERY ISO TS MAY DEVELOP ON SATURDAY EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCES AT KCAK AND KYNG - HAVE JUST
PROB30 FOR RAIN RIGHT NOW FOR A BRIEF WINDOW. A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA, PUSHING RAIN EAST AND TRENDS WILL
BE FOR SCATTERING CLOUD DECKS WIND WEST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO
20-25 KTS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR NON-VFR
COVERAGE.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER FAIRLY
QUIET FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WESTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 18
KNOTS AND WAVES OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL START OUT VARIABLE ON SUNDAY BUT A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
LATE SUNDAY. EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY WIND 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AND WAVES OF 3 TO 6
FEET. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY FOR HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK IN OVER THE LAKE BY TUESDAY WITH A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND
AROUND 10 KNOTS.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...SEFCOVIC
MARINE...77
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