718
FXUS61 KCLE 200559
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
159 AM EDT SAT JUN 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WHICH MAY RESULT IN RISES
ON AREA RIVERS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
LINGERING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE
REGION DESPITE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING OVERHEAD
FROM THE WEST. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA WILL
DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD. COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS CONFINED TO SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.
THE MAJORITY OF SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY
WILL BE DRY AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS THE REGION. BY SUNDAY NIGHT
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST
BEFORE TRACKING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
AREA PWATS AVERAGING ~1.75 INCHES ARE FORECAST WHICH IS WELL
ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR MID/LATE JUNE. CURRENT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY RANGE BETWEEN 1-1.5 INCHES
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1.5-1.75 INCHES ACROSS THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORM AND/OR STORMS THAT TRAIN
OVER THE SAME AREA. RISES ON AREA RIVERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW RIVERS RISING INTO MINOR FLOOD STAGE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AS WE NEAR CLOSER TO MONDAY. WPC EXPANDED THE SLIGHT
RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TO INCLUDE THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE, BUT EXPECT WIDELY
SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BENEATH THE COLD
AIR ALOFT AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AIDED BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE
DROPPING THROUGH THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW. COVERAGE SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW ON
ANYTHING IMPACTING A TERMINAL. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL IS AT
KMFD, KCAK, AND KYNG, SO USED VCSH THERE. OTHERWISE, JUST A MID-
LEVEL CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE SCATTERING OUT
TONIGHT.
LIGHT W WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON, GUSTING UP TO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES. W WINDS WILL
DECREASE AGAIN TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR NON-VFR
COVERAGE.
MARINE
QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON LAKE ERIE TODAY AND MOST OF
SUNDAY, WITH W WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS THIS MORNING INCREASING TO
10-15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE TURNING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL START TO CHANGE
SUNDAY EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY LIFTS A WARM FRONT TO JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKESHORE SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL SUPPORT E WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25 KNOTS
SUNDAY NIGHT, TURNING NE AT 15-25 KNOTS MONDAY BEHIND THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT AS THE LOW PROGRESSES TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC. NNE WINDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT,
TURNING NNW AT 5-10 KNOTS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST
WINDS AND WAVES EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL BASINS.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...GARUCKAS
MARINE...GARUCKAS
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