516
FXUS61 KCLE 201145
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
745 AM EDT SAT JUN 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WHILE WIDESPREAD RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, THE
QPF FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY HAS STARTED TO TREND
LOWER.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON.
2) WIDESPREAD RAIN OF 1-1.5 INCHES IS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. RISES ON AREA RIVERS ARE LIKELY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
COUPLE TO APPROACH MINOR FLOOD LEVELS. PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS IS ALSO LIKELY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED UPSTREAM ACROSS MICHIGAN AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE CROSSING NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. IN ADDITION, A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING SOUTH OF LAKE
MICHIGAN WHERE MOISTURE ADVECTION IS FOCUSED. EXPECTING TO SEE A FEW
SHOWERS NEAR LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING MOVING SOUTHEAST. BOTH COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AS THESE MOVE INLAND ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA, GENERALLY BETWEEN NOON AND 4 PM. INSTABILITY WILL BE A
LIMITING FACTOR TODAY WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE OF ONLY 500-700J/KG.
SOME SHEAR IS PRESENT BUT DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL LIKELY
LIMIT STORM INTENSITY. A COUPLE WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE NEXT RAIN MAKING SYSTEM ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE
RACES EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OF 1006 MB WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A 40-45 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET
PROVIDING A GOOD FOCUS FOR ISENTROPIC ASCENT. DEEP MOISTURE AND
EFFICIENT RAINFALL WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SEVERAL HOURS OF STEADY RAIN.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE LIKELY TO ARRIVE EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO CENTRAL OHIO. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE LOW THROUGH THE
DAY ON MONDAY.
OVERALL THE RAINFALL FORECAST HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY LOWER WITH THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE LAST 24-48 HOURS. WE ARE LOOKING FOR RAINFALL
RANGING FROM 0.75" TOWARDS ERIE PENNSYLVANIA WITH LOCALLY AROUND
1.5" CLOSER TO CENTRAL OHIO. UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST IS
A RESULT OF HOW UPSTREAM CONVECTION WILL INFLUENCE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND COVERAGE/DURATION OF RAIN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FIRE FROM INDIANA SOUTHWEST INTO
MISSOURI ON SUNDAY AND BUILD SOUTHWARD WITH TIME. THIS AREA TO
OUR SOUTHWEST IS HIGHLIGHTED FOR BOTH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER AND A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THE EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OUTLOOK FOR THE LOCAL AREA HAS TRENDED DOWN WITH JUST
A FEW OF OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES INCLUDED IN THE SLIGHT RISK
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL(LEVEL 2 OF 5) WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA
IS IN A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 1 OF 5). IN
ADDITION, DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS NOW LOOKS TO ARRIVE OVERHEAD
EARLY MONDAY. STILL EXPECT RISES ON AREA RIVERS, ESPECIALLY
WHERE RAINFALL EXCEEDS AN INCH. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH TO PUSH A
RIVER OR TWO TO ACTION STAGE BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN A COUPLE
OF THE SOUTHERN RIVERS REACHING MINOR FLOODING. GROUND
CONDITIONS WILL CERTAINLY GET SOGGY WITH PONDING OF WATER LIKELY
DURING HIGHER RATES. WILL MONITOR FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING IN
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS OR IF TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURS.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN FOR MONDAY WITH CLOUDY SKIES
AND LINGERING SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A FEW SHOWERS ARE BEING OBSERVED ON RADAR THIS MORNING, BUT DRY
AIR IS NOT ALLOWING THESE TO REACH THE GROUND, SO KEPT ALL
TERMINALS DRY AND VFR THIS MORNING. A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MID/UPPER
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASS ACROSS THE REGION.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON ANY CELLS IMPACTING A TERMINAL, BUT
THE BEST POTENTIAL IS AT KMFD, KCAK, AND KYNG, SO KEPT VCSH
THERE. ANY BRIEFLY HEAVY DOWNPOUR COULD DROP CIGS AND VIS TO
MVFR OR LOWER, BUT FOR THE MOST PART, VFR WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH TONIGHT.
LIGHT W WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON, GUSTING UP TO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES. W WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AGAIN TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR NON-VFR
COVERAGE.
MARINE
QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON LAKE ERIE TODAY AND MOST OF
SUNDAY, WITH W WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS THIS MORNING INCREASING TO
10-15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE TURNING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL START TO CHANGE
SUNDAY EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY LIFTS A WARM FRONT TO JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKESHORE SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL SUPPORT E WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25 KNOTS
SUNDAY NIGHT, TURNING NE AT 15-25 KNOTS MONDAY BEHIND THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT AS THE LOW PROGRESSES TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC. NNE WINDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT,
TURNING NNW AT 5-10 KNOTS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST
WINDS AND WAVES EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL BASINS.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...GARUCKAS
MARINE...GARUCKAS
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