156
FXUS61 KCLE 210555
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
155 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SLIGHTLY DECREASED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL OHIO.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
2) WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WHICH
MAY RESULT IN RISES ON AREA RIVERS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING AND WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE ALOFT PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHEST COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL OCCUR ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR WHERE THE BEST
INSTABILITY, ALBEIT FAIRLY WEAK AT 400-700 J/KG, EXISTS. LOCALLY
STRONGER BUT SUB- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ISOLATED WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL OVERSPREAD THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. AT THE
SURFACE, THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK DUE
EAST ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE
RICH AS PWAT VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1.25-1.75 INCHES, WHICH ARE
ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR MID/LATE JUNE. OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS
CONTINUE TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY WITH CURRENT STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS RANGING BETWEEN 0.75-1.25 INCHES. SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF
1.25-1.50 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND ALONG THE
LAKESHORE. SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
MORNING, THOUGH THE BEST INSTABILITY REMAINS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE IN ANY CONVECTION AND/OR
SHOWERS/STORMS THAT TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA. THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR THE WESTERN
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION THIS MORNING GRADUALLY DEPARTS EAST TO ALLOW LOW PRESSURE
TO MOVE OUT OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH POCKETS OF CIRRUS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO
A MID-LEVEL BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUD DECK GRADUALLY
OVERSPREADING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAIN WILL
EVENTUALLY ARRIVE FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW TONIGHT, BUT SLOWED
DOWN THE ONSET OF RAIN TO THE 00-05Z TIMEFRAME GIVEN A LOT OF
DRY AIR TO OVERCOME.
LIGHT W TO NW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL TURN N TO NW AT 5-10 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON THEN E AT 5-10 KNOTS TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY MONDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS. NON-VFR
POSSIBLE AGAIN IN RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
MARINE
LIGHT N TO NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING INCREASING
TO 5-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SLIDES
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO ALLOW LOW PRESSURE TO APPROACH
FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN E THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST FROM THIS LOW,
AND THE E WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME QUITE STRONG IN THE 15-25
KNOTS RANGE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL BASINS. THIS WILL BUILD WAVE HEIGHTS TO 3-5
FEET. AS THE LOW PASSES ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO MONDAY, WINDS WILL
QUICKLY TURN NE BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT, STAYING IN THE
15-20 KNOT RANGE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AND BEACH HAZARDS
STATEMENTS WILL BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY FOR AT LEAST
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL BASINS FOR WINDS, WAVES, AND RIP
CURRENTS. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BEFORE TURNING
S TO SW AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THURSDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...GARUCKAS
MARINE...GARUCKAS
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