884
FXUS61 KCLE 210804
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
404 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL OHIO. THE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS BEEN LOWERED
TO MARGINAL (1 OUT OF 5).
KEY MESSAGES
1) A SOAKING RAIN WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.75-1.25 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
2) TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY THEN
TREND WARMER OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST INTO
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. MEANWHILE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF A FAST
MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. THERE
WILL BE CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR TO OVERCOME IN THE LOW AND MID-LEVELS
WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING.
PRECIPITATION TRENDS OVER THE LAST 48 HOURS ARE FAVORING THE
HEAVIEST RAIN OF AN INCH OR MORE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ROBUST CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INDIANA, WITH STORM
MOTION TO THE SOUTHEAST HEADING INTO TONIGHT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN LOWER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. FORECAST AMOUNTS IN
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES LOOK CLOSER TO A HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH NOW AS SOME OF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION IS CUT-
OFF.
ELEVATED CONVECTION REMAINS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AND WE WILL MONITOR RAINFALL RATES IN THIS MOIST
ENVIRONMENT. THE OVERALL CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WITH
THIS SYSTEM HAS TRENDED DOWN THOUGH. THE RAIN LOOKS MOST
PERSISTENT ACROSS THE NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE A MID-LEVEL
DRY SLOT ARRIVES ON MONDAY MORNING. DESPITE THE DRYING ALOFT,
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO FILL BACK IN ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT WRAPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
CAPE OF 500-700 J/KG IS EXPECTED IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES SO
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN, GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE FOCUSED
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE ON THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN. GUST NEAR
THE LAKESHORE WILL BE 30-35 MPH AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IMPACTED BY THE COOLER AND DAMP CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING
THE LOW 70S ON MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE OVERALL LONGWAVE PATTERN SHOWS A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WITH TROUGHS
MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL FOR MOST
OF THE WEEK WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS ALL DEPICT THE RIDGE
STARTING TO AMPLIFY ALOFT FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
TRENDING WARMER.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION THIS MORNING GRADUALLY DEPARTS EAST TO ALLOW LOW PRESSURE
TO MOVE OUT OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH POCKETS OF CIRRUS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO
A MID-LEVEL BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUD DECK GRADUALLY
OVERSPREADING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAIN WILL
EVENTUALLY ARRIVE FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW TONIGHT, BUT SLOWED
DOWN THE ONSET OF RAIN TO THE 00-05Z TIMEFRAME GIVEN A LOT OF
DRY AIR TO OVERCOME.
LIGHT W TO NW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL TURN N TO NW AT 5-10 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON THEN E AT 5-10 KNOTS TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY MONDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS. NON-VFR
POSSIBLE AGAIN IN RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
MARINE
LIGHT N TO NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING INCREASING
TO 5-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SLIDES
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO ALLOW LOW PRESSURE TO APPROACH
FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN E THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST FROM THIS LOW,
AND THE E WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME QUITE STRONG IN THE 15-25
KNOTS RANGE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL BASINS. THIS WILL BUILD WAVE HEIGHTS TO 3-5
FEET. AS THE LOW PASSES ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO MONDAY, WINDS WILL
QUICKLY TURN NE BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT, STAYING IN THE
15-20 KNOT RANGE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AND BEACH HAZARDS
STATEMENTS WILL BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY FOR AT LEAST
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL BASINS FOR WINDS, WAVES, AND RIP
CURRENTS. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BEFORE TURNING
S TO SW AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THURSDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR OHZ003-007-009.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR OHZ010>012.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
LEZ142>144.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
LEZ145>147.
DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...GARUCKAS
MARINE...GARUCKAS
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