090
FXUS61 KCLE 211801
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
201 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL OHIO. THE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS BEEN LOWERED
TO MARGINAL (1 OUT OF 5).
KEY MESSAGES
1) A SOAKING RAIN WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.75-1.25 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
2) TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY THEN
TREND WARMER OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST INTO
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. MEANWHILE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF A FAST
MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. THERE
WILL BE CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR TO OVERCOME IN THE LOW AND MID-LEVELS
WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING.
PRECIPITATION TRENDS OVER THE LAST 48 HOURS ARE FAVORING THE
HEAVIEST RAIN OF AN INCH OR MORE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ROBUST CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INDIANA, WITH STORM
MOTION TO THE SOUTHEAST HEADING INTO TONIGHT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN LOWER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. FORECAST AMOUNTS IN
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES LOOK CLOSER TO A HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH NOW AS SOME OF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION IS CUT-
OFF.
ELEVATED CONVECTION REMAINS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AND WE WILL MONITOR RAINFALL RATES IN THIS MOIST
ENVIRONMENT. THE OVERALL CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WITH
THIS SYSTEM HAS TRENDED DOWN THOUGH. THE RAIN LOOKS MOST
PERSISTENT ACROSS THE NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE A MID-LEVEL
DRY SLOT ARRIVES ON MONDAY MORNING. DESPITE THE DRYING ALOFT,
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO FILL BACK IN ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT WRAPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
CAPE OF 500-700 J/KG IS EXPECTED IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES SO
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN, GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE FOCUSED
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE ON THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN. GUST NEAR
THE LAKESHORE WILL BE 30-35 MPH AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IMPACTED BY THE COOLER AND DAMP CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING
THE LOW 70S ON MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE OVERALL LONGWAVE PATTERN SHOWS A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WITH TROUGHS
MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL FOR MOST
OF THE WEEK WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS ALL DEPICT THE RIDGE
STARTING TO AMPLIFY ALOFT FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
TRENDING WARMER.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY.
IT WILL REMAIN VFR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A BATCH
OF RAIN THAT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS LOW PRESSURE. INITIAL LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS BEGIN SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST LATE THIS EVENING,
WITH THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAIN LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY. RAIN WILL TREND MORE INTERMITTENT AND SHOWERY
DURING THE DAY MONDAY, THOUGH A BAND OF MORE ORGANIZED AND
MODERATE SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO MONDAY
MORNING AND PIVOT EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF MORE NOTABLE RAIN.
CEILINGS WILL NOT FALL MUCH UNTIL RAIN STARTS, THEN WILL
GRADUALLY FALL TO A MIX OF IFR AND LOW MVFR BY EARLY MONDAY.
CEILINGS WILL LARGELY FALL TO MVFR DURING STEADIER OR MORE
INTENSE RAIN, THOUGH DOWNPOURS WITH A PERIOD OF IFR VISIBILITY
ARE POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY AT TOL AND CLE.
WINDS ARE LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON, RANGING FROM NORTHWESTERLY
ACROSS NORTHEAST OH/NORTHWEST PA AND MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TOWARDS
NORTHWEST OH. WINDS SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE BOARD AND
INCREASE TO 6-12KT TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST ON
MONDAY ACROSS NORTHWEST OH AND CLOSER TO LAKE ERIE FARTHER EAST,
BUT WILL BRIEFLY SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY FROM MFD-CAK-YNG POINTS
SOUTH ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW TRACK. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 8-15KT (WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25KT NEAR LAKE ERIE) ON
MONDAY, WITH THE SOUTHWEST WINDS A BIT LIGHTER AT 5-10KT.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY LINGERS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN
SHOWERS AND LOWER CEILINGS. NON-VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN IN RAIN
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
LIGHT N TO NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING INCREASING
TO 5-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SLIDES
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO ALLOW LOW PRESSURE TO APPROACH
FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN E THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST FROM THIS LOW,
AND THE E WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME QUITE STRONG IN THE 15-25
KNOTS RANGE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL BASINS. THIS WILL BUILD WAVE HEIGHTS TO 3-5
FEET. AS THE LOW PASSES ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO MONDAY, WINDS WILL
QUICKLY TURN NE BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT, STAYING IN THE
15-20 KNOT RANGE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AND BEACH HAZARDS
STATEMENTS WILL BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY FOR AT LEAST
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL BASINS FOR WINDS, WAVES, AND RIP
CURRENTS. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BEFORE TURNING
S TO SW AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THURSDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR OHZ003-007-009.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR OHZ010>012.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
LEZ142>144.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
LEZ145>147.
DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...GARUCKAS
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