786
FXUS61 KCLE 212355
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
755 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
QPF FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY HAS TRENDED A BIT LOWER WITH THIS
UPDATE, BUT OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WERE NEEDED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAIN MAY BE MODERATE AT TIMES.
2) DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY TO MID WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING AND RAIN CHANCES
RETURNING LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND FAR SOUTHERN
REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. SHOWERS WILL
ATTEMPT TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING, ALTHOUGH IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN VIRGA FOR SEVERAL HOURS DUE
TO DRY LOWER LEVELS. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BECOME A BIT
MORE SCATTERED WITH PERIODIC DRY PERIODS NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER
12Z/8 AM MONDAY MORNING, ALTHOUGH SOME CAMS (INCLUDING THE 12Z
HRRR) HAVE DRY AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION EARLIER THAN THAT.
RAIN COULD BE MODERATE AT TIMES, HOWEVER QPF HAS TRENDED DOWN
FURTHER. AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH LOCATIONS SOUTH OF U.S. ROUTE 30 MAY
ONLY SEE UP TO 0.75 INCHES OF RAIN AT MOST. SOME NUISANCE
PONDING CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS
THAT GET OVER AN INCH OF RAIN, BUT THE FLOODING RISK IS
RELATIVELY LOW AT THIS POINT.
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY,
ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERK UP A BIT DURING PEAK DIURNAL HEATING EAST OF
I-71, ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY LARGELY BE TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE LOCAL AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND IN MORE ZONAL
FLOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S MONDAY BEFORE RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY
WEDNESDAY. TEMPS MODERATE LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
LIKELY RETURNING TO THE MID 80S IN MANY SPOTS BY SUNDAY. DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING AS A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
RAIN OVER INDIANA AND ILLINOIS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST
TONIGHT WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE ACTIVE PORTION OF THE SYSTEM WITH THUNDERSTORMS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS TONIGHT.
HOWEVER, AN AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN HAS DEVELOPED NORTH OF THE
LOW AND CONTINUES TO EXPAND IN A DEFORMATION ZONE IN NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. THIS RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO THE AIRSPACE
TONIGHT, BRINGING MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR CONDITIONS TO THE
TERMINALS. WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, A DRY SLOT IS
DEVELOPING AND WILL ENCROACH INTO THE AIRSPACE LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY AND MAY ALLOW FOR A REPRIEVE OF THE MOST PESSIMISTIC
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR KMFD, KCAK, AND KYNG. RAIN WILL EXIT
BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR MOST WITH CEILINGS IMPROVING TO
MVFR. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL START GENERALLY EASTERLY AND
SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTH WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSAGE.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONTINUES INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOW
CEILINGS. NON-VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN IN RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT
AND ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON MONDAY, DEPARTING TO THE EAST MONDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT. THIS LOW PRESSURE IS NOT EXTREMELY STRONG,
BUT THE TRACK WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ELEVATED EAST TO NORTH
WINDS ACROSS LAKE ERIE. WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST THIS
EVENING AND INCREASE TO 15-25KT ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
BASINS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, PEAK AT 20-25KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LAKE MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON WHILE GRADUALLY SHIFTING MORE
NORTHEAST, THEN DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WHILE SHIFTING NORTHERLY. WAVES WILL PEAK AT 4 TO
7 FEET ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN ON MONDAY. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND BEACH
HAZARDS STATEMENT, AND EXPANDED THE HEADLINES TO INCLUDE
ASHTABULA COUNTY AND ERIE COUNTY PA. GENERALLY TRANQUIL MARINE
CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 4 AM EDT MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR OHZ003-007.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 4 AM EDT MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR OHZ009>011.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR OHZ012-089.
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ142-
143.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
LEZ144>146.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 10 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
LEZ147>149.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...SEFCOVIC
MARINE...SULLIVAN
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