041
FXUS61 KCLE 050638
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
238 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE HEAT ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED EARLY AND THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT IS OVER FOR THIS EVENING. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW MORE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BUT IT'S VERY UNLIKELY THAT
THEY POSE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS INSTABILITY HAS
SUBSTANTIALLY DECREASED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HEAVY
RAIN AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
2) TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY, BEFORE BECOMING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TOWARDS MID TO
LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE STORY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE REGION AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY MOVES EAST
FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY. THE MAIN
CONCERN WITH ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE HEAVY
RAIN THREAT, GIVEN A LACK OF STEERING FLOW LESS THAN 15 KNOTS,
SKINNY CAPE PROFILES, AND ANOMALOUSLY-HIGH PWATS AROUND 1.80
INCHES. SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING (MAINLY RATE-DRIVEN UP TO
2" PER HOUR) IS POSSIBLE WHERE STORMS PERSIST, THOUGH GIVEN THE
CONTINUED CHANCES INTO MONDAY, WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR AREA
RIVERS FOR SOME MINOR RISES. AT THIS TIME, THE OVERALL SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT REMAINS LOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY GIVEN THE LACK OF
FLOW, THOUGH CAN'T RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED INSTANCES OF WET
DOWNBURSTS IN THE STRONGEST CELLS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ANTICIPATE A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN
OVER THE NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE BACK TO AROUND
NORMAL (LOW TO MID-80S), THOUGH MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. TEMPERATURES MAY RISE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY MID TO LATE WEEK IN THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90, THOUGH HEAT INDICES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 100.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SOME FOG AND MIST ARE DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING FROM
EASTERN OH INTO WESTERN PA. LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS ALREADY ONGOING
AND IMPACTING YNG. THIS FOG/MIST WILL LIKELY BECOME A BIT MORE
WIDESPREAD AND DENSE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE IMPROVING
11-14Z. THE NEXT FOCUS WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WITH
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL DRIFT EAST-SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA ALONG A SLOWLY SAGGING FRONT TODAY. AN INITIAL
BATCH OF SHOWERS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE LOW IS BLOSSOMING
AS OF 6Z ACROSS NORTHERN IN AND WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST INTO
THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A FEW EMBEDDED DOWNPOURS IS HIGHER THIS MORNING AT TOL, FDY, MFD
AND CLE WHERE PROB30 GROUPS FOR HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE INCLUDED.
WILL THEN LIKELY GET AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE SAGGING FRONT, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SLOW-MOVING
LOW PRESSURE. CONFIDENCE IN THIS AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS
HIGHEST IN THE VICINITY OF MFD, CAK, AND YNG WHERE TEMPOS FOR
TSRA ARE INCLUDED...BUT CAN'T BE RULED OUT AT TOL/FDY WHERE
PROB30 GROUPS WERE UTILIZED. CONFIDENCE IS BELOW 30% AT CLE
WHICH PRECLUDES ANY MENTION IN THE TAF, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
EVALUATE THAT. CONVECTION SHOULD GENERALLY WANE TO A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT. SOME NON-VFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AT TIMES TODAY, THOUGH VFR SHOULD BE MORE PREVALENT
OUTSIDE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT MAINLY SOUTHERLY WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT MORE NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY AS THE FRONT GRADUALLY SAGS ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL
REMAIN UNDER 10KT OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION TODAY, WITH A FEW
GUSTS OVER 30KT POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
LAKE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE LAKE. THESE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10-20KT TONIGHT AND MONDAY, GRADUALLY WEAKENING
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF 1 TO 3
FOOT WAVES TONIGHT THROUGH PARTS OF TUESDAY, WITH POTENTIAL FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD OR TWO OF 4 FOOTERS MAINLY BETWEEN THE ISLANDS
AND WILLOWICK WHEN WINDS PUSH CLOSER TO 20KT TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
THE WIND AND WAVE FORECAST WERE NUDGED UP A BIT HIGHER WITH
THIS PACKAGE, AND WOULD SUPPORT MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT/BEACH
HAZARDS HEADLINES FOR A FEW ZONES IN THE CENTRAL BASIN. BECAUSE
THE FORECAST IS VERY MARGINAL FOR A HEADLINE AND CONDITIONS
DON'T RAMP UP UNTIL TONIGHT WILL HOLD OFF ON THE HEADLINES WITH
THIS CYCLE, BUT THEY MAY WELL BE COMING TODAY. IT WILL STILL BE
ON THE CHOPPY SIDE ON TUESDAY THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL BE ON A
SLOW IMPROVEMENT. EXPECT TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY, WITH
THE NEXT COLD FRONT BRINGING SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WINDS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TO THE LAKE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KAHN
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...SULLIVAN
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