468
FXUS61 KCLE 050712
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
312 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNRISE THIS MORNING. THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED FOR TODAY AS WELL.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE TODAY.
2) TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY, BEFORE BECOMING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TOWARDS MID TO
LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE A SLOW MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
AND LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. FIRST OFF THIS MORNING, THERE IS
SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS FAR NEOH AND NWPA. WE HAVE A SPS
FOR THIS PATCHY FOG THROUGH SUNRISE. IF TRENDS BECOME
WIDESPREAD, WE MAY HAVE TO PUT OUT A SHORT-FUSED DENSE FOG
ADVISORY THIS EARLY MORNING. HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE THAT THE
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OR MCV CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN INDIANA
THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD TODAY ACROSS NORTHERN
OHIO AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. PWAT VALUES ARE TROPICAL AROUND
1.8 INCHES. STEERING FLOW IS WEAK AROUND 15 KNOTS OR LESS. WE
ARE EXPECTED PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE SLOW MOVING MCV EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE
AREA. SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH RAINFALL RATES UP TO 2.0 INCHES. ANY
CLUSTERS OF STRONGER CONVECTION COULD POTENTIALLY SUPPORT A
BRIEF COLD POOL ORGANIZATION AND ASSOCIATED MARGINAL RISK FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. SPC HAS MUCH OF THE AREA HIGHLIGHTED IN A
DAY 1 OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE WEATHER DUE TO AN ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND THREAT. MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD WEEKEND AND DECREASE
IN COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.
WE WILL RINSE AND REPEAT THIS DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION AND
RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA OR
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-71. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE BY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. A BROAD TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE THIS WEEK AND BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. LIKELY POPS WILL RETURN INTO THE FORECAST
BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
DUE TO ADDED CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES TODAY AND
MONDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO SEASONABLE AVERAGES FOR
EARLY JULY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S,
THOUGH HEAT INDICES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 100. SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SOME FOG AND MIST ARE DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING FROM
EASTERN OH INTO WESTERN PA. LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS ALREADY ONGOING
AND IMPACTING YNG. THIS FOG/MIST WILL LIKELY BECOME A BIT MORE
WIDESPREAD AND DENSE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE IMPROVING
11-14Z. THE NEXT FOCUS WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WITH
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL DRIFT EAST-SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA ALONG A SLOWLY SAGGING FRONT TODAY. AN INITIAL
BATCH OF SHOWERS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE LOW IS BLOSSOMING
AS OF 6Z ACROSS NORTHERN IN AND WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST INTO
THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A FEW EMBEDDED DOWNPOURS IS HIGHER THIS MORNING AT TOL, FDY, MFD
AND CLE WHERE PROB30 GROUPS FOR HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE INCLUDED.
WILL THEN LIKELY GET AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE SAGGING FRONT, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SLOW-MOVING
LOW PRESSURE. CONFIDENCE IN THIS AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS
HIGHEST IN THE VICINITY OF MFD, CAK, AND YNG WHERE TEMPOS FOR
TSRA ARE INCLUDED...BUT CAN'T BE RULED OUT AT TOL/FDY WHERE
PROB30 GROUPS WERE UTILIZED. CONFIDENCE IS BELOW 30% AT CLE
WHICH PRECLUDES ANY MENTION IN THE TAF, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
EVALUATE THAT. CONVECTION SHOULD GENERALLY WANE TO A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT. SOME NON-VFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AT TIMES TODAY, THOUGH VFR SHOULD BE MORE PREVALENT
OUTSIDE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT MAINLY SOUTHERLY WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT MORE NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY AS THE FRONT GRADUALLY SAGS ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL
REMAIN UNDER 10KT OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION TODAY, WITH A FEW
GUSTS OVER 30KT POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
LAKE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE LAKE. THESE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10-20KT TONIGHT AND MONDAY, GRADUALLY WEAKENING
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF 1 TO 3
FOOT WAVES TONIGHT THROUGH PARTS OF TUESDAY, WITH POTENTIAL FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD OR TWO OF 4 FOOTERS MAINLY BETWEEN THE ISLANDS
AND WILLOWICK WHEN WINDS PUSH CLOSER TO 20KT TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
THE WIND AND WAVE FORECAST WERE NUDGED UP A BIT HIGHER WITH
THIS PACKAGE, AND WOULD SUPPORT MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT/BEACH
HAZARDS HEADLINES FOR A FEW ZONES IN THE CENTRAL BASIN. BECAUSE
THE FORECAST IS VERY MARGINAL FOR A HEADLINE AND CONDITIONS
DON'T RAMP UP UNTIL TONIGHT WILL HOLD OFF ON THE HEADLINES WITH
THIS CYCLE, BUT THEY MAY WELL BE COMING TODAY. IT WILL STILL BE
ON THE CHOPPY SIDE ON TUESDAY THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL BE ON A
SLOW IMPROVEMENT. EXPECT TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY, WITH
THE NEXT COLD FRONT BRINGING SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WINDS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TO THE LAKE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...77
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...SULLIVAN
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