001
FXUS61 KCLE 051956
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
356 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OHIO INTO
THIS EVENING, THOUGH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE WATCH AREA
WILL BE LIMITED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HEAVY RAIN AND
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
2) THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY, THE STORM COMPLEX THAT IMPACTED MUCH OF
NORTHEAST OHIO EARLIER TODAY HAS EXITED SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. IN
TERMS OF THE FLOOD WATCH, NOT EXPECTING MUCH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
INTO THIS EVENING, THOUGH WILL KEEP IT IN EFFECT FOR NOW GIVEN
CONTINUED IMPACTS, PARTICULARLY IN THE TRUMBULL/MAHONING AREAS.
ANTICIPATE WE WILL BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE FLOOD WATCH A LITTLE
EARLIER THAN THE CURRENT 10 PM EXPIRATION TIME. OTHERWISE, WILL NEED
TO MONITOR POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY, ROUGHLY DRAPED NW TO SE FROM
TOLEDO TO CANTON. NOT ANTICIPATING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BE AS
ORGANIZED AS THE CLUSTER THAT IMPACTED NORTHEAST OHIO EARLIER TODAY,
BUT HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE REGARDLESS.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARDS MONDAY AS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS,
POTENTIALLY IMPACTING A SIMILAR AREA AS TODAY. ONCE AGAIN, HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS GIVEN
ANOMALOUSLY-HIGH PWATS, WEAK FLOW, AND SKINNY CAPE PROFILES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AFTER BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY, ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARDS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME STRONGER
STORMS, SUPPORTED BY MODEST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OF AROUND 25
KNOTS AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE THREAT. DEPENDING ON THE
SOUTHERN PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT, COULD SEE ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS NE OH AND NW PA THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO PA OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. CONDITIONS WITH ANY STORMS WILL BE IFR, MAINLY AROUND
KCAK AND KYNG. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS
EVENING AS THERE WILL BE A RECOVERY PERIOD BEHIND THIS INITIAL
LINE OF CONVECTION BUT MODELS SUGGEST THAT NEW ISO/SCT
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AGAIN WITH LESS COVERAGE THAN EARLIER
TODAY. A BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST NEAR LAKE ERIE WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT THAT WILL ALLOW FOR NEW RAIN TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO ALL OF THE TERMINALS.
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN SATURATED AND LOW CEILINGS AND
FOG WILL DEVELOP WITH OR WITHOUT RAIN. LOW CEILINGS WILL THEN
PERSIST WITH THE BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTH ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE
EAST TO NORTHEAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH
NEW DEVELOPMENT IN STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN NW OHIO,
WINDS MAY ACTUALLY BE WESTERLY FOR A TIME BEFORE COMING AROUND
TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST ON THE LAKE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH OF THE LAKE. NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15-20 KTS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME BRIEF 4 FT WAVES FOR THE CENTRAL BASIN, WHICH
WOULD PROMPT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. A RESIDUAL TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND ALLOW
FOR LIGHTER NORTHEAST FLOW ON THE LAKE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FLIP FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND SHIFT
WINDS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST FOR FRIDAY. OUTSIDE OF MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MARINE HEADLINES ARE NOT EXPECTED.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ010>013-
020>023-031>033.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KAHN
AVIATION...SEFCOVIC
MARINE...SEFCOVIC
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