738
FXUS61 KCLE 060551
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
151 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE FLOOD WATCH WAS CANCELED FOR LAKE, GEAUGA, AND TRUMBULL
COUNTIES BUT EXPANDED TOWARDS OTHER AREAS OF NORTHWEST AND
CENTRAL OHIO.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HEAVY RAIN AND
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
2) THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY, THE STORM COMPLEX THAT IMPACTED MUCH OF
NORTHEAST OHIO EARLIER TODAY HAS EXITED SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. IN
TERMS OF THE FLOOD WATCH, NOT EXPECTING MUCH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
INTO THIS EVENING, THOUGH WILL KEEP IT IN EFFECT FOR NOW GIVEN
CONTINUED IMPACTS, PARTICULARLY IN THE TRUMBULL/MAHONING AREAS.
ANTICIPATE WE WILL BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE FLOOD WATCH A LITTLE
EARLIER THAN THE CURRENT 10 PM EXPIRATION TIME. OTHERWISE, WILL NEED
TO MONITOR POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY, ROUGHLY DRAPED NW TO SE FROM
TOLEDO TO CANTON. NOT ANTICIPATING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BE AS
ORGANIZED AS THE CLUSTER THAT IMPACTED NORTHEAST OHIO EARLIER TODAY,
BUT HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE REGARDLESS.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARDS MONDAY AS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS,
POTENTIALLY IMPACTING A SIMILAR AREA AS TODAY. ONCE AGAIN, HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS GIVEN
ANOMALOUSLY-HIGH PWATS, WEAK FLOW, AND SKINNY CAPE PROFILES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AFTER BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY, ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARDS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME STRONGER
STORMS, SUPPORTED BY MODEST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OF AROUND 25
KNOTS AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE THREAT. DEPENDING ON THE
SOUTHERN PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT, COULD SEE ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE MAIN MESSAGE FOR AVIATION WEATHER WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR TODAY WITH VARIABLE FLYING
CONDITIONS AROUND CONVECTION. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH POCKETS OF HEAVIER
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO IMPACT SOME TAF SITES. THE GENERAL
EXPECTATION IS MVFR CEILINGS AND CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. PROB30 GROUPS HIGHLIGHT A 6 HOUR
WINDOW WHERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BRING AT LEAST IFR
CONDITIONS IF NOT BRIEFLY LIFR WEATHER LATER TODAY. WINDS WILL
BE VARIABLE AROUND THE WEAK SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS TODAY.
EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 8 TO 12 KNOTS EXPECTED
NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK. SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WINDS
5 TO 10 KNOTS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE LOW TRACK. MVFR CEILINGS AND
SOME LIGHT FOG 5SM IS POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE THIS EVENING TOWARDS
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST ON THE LAKE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH OF THE LAKE. NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15-20 KTS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME BRIEF 4 FT WAVES FOR THE CENTRAL BASIN, WHICH
WOULD PROMPT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. A RESIDUAL TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND ALLOW
FOR LIGHTER NORTHEAST FLOW ON THE LAKE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FLIP FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND SHIFT
WINDS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST FOR FRIDAY. OUTSIDE OF MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MARINE HEADLINES ARE NOT EXPECTED.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KAHN
AVIATION...77
MARINE...77
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