120
FXUS61 KCLE 061109
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
709 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
..AVIATION 12Z TAF UPDATE
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ISSUED A NEW FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY. THIS
WATCH COVERS A COMBINATION OF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN CONTINUING
TO STREAM OFF OF LAKE ERIE INTO PARTS OF NORTHWEST OHIO THROUGH
THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH EXPECTED
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS FARTHER EAST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OHIO.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STREAMING OFF OF WESTERN LAKE
ERIE INTO PARTS OF NORTHWEST OHIO THIS MORNING, WITH ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO BLOSSOM ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING REMAIN
CONCERNS AND A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE AREA.
2) THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE WEAK, STACKED LOW-MID LEVEL LOW THAT DRIFTED INTO THE REGION
ON SUNDAY REMAINS WITH US TODAY BEFORE SLOWLY EXITING TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY, PROVIDING FOR ONE MORE DAY
OF RATHER UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
THE FOCUS TO START THE DAY IS FROM LAKE ERIE INTO PARTS OF
NORTHWEST OHIO. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE LAKE, FOCUSING
COOLER, CONVERGENT EAST-NORTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW NORTH OF THE
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED BETWEEN FINDLAY AND MANSFIELD.
THE WARM LAKE WATERS ARE PROVIDING FOR A POOL OF INSTABILITY
THAT IS EXTENDING INTO NORTHWEST OH AND HAS BEEN FUELING LAKE-
ENHANCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY EFFICIENT RAIN-
RATES OVERNIGHT. MOST HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH AT LEAST THIS MORNING AND QUITE
POSSIBLY INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IF MODELS LIKE THE
HRRR, WHICH HAS CAPTURED THIS OVERALL SETUP WELL, PROVE CORRECT.
GIVEN THE GENERAL SETUP DOESN'T CHANGE UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON
WHEN THE TROUGH AXIS STARTS SHIFTING SOUTH AND INSTABILITY OVER
THE LAKE BEGINS DECREASING, EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE IN
SOME FASHION WITH EMBEDDED EFFICIENT/TORRENTIAL RAIN RATES.
THE MOST TORRENTIAL RAINFALL OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN OVER THE LAKE,
BUT HAS IMPACTED KELLEYS ISLAND WHERE RADAR AND A FEW PERSONAL
WEATHER STATIONS SUGGEST 10-15" OF RAIN HAS FALLEN SINCE ABOUT 9
PM. PEAK HOURLY RATES OF OVER 5" PER HOUR WERE OBSERVED. EVEN
ON THE MAINLAND, A SLOW-MOVING CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
HAS DROPPED A QUICK 2-3" OF RAIN ON PARTS OF EASTERN WOOD COUNTY
EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST AT LEAST ANOTHER
LOCALIZED 2-4" OF RAIN CAN OCCUR WITHIN LAKE ENHANCED
CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH SOME MODELS SUCH AS THE
HRRR DEPICTING POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED 5"+ TOTALS. GIVEN THE
MODEL SIGNAL, PORTIONS OF THE AREA SEEING HEAVY RAIN ON SUNDAY,
AND OBSERVED RAIN RATES OVERNIGHT HAVE GONE WITH A FLOOD WATCH
FOR LUCAS, WOOD, OTTAWA, SANDUSKY, ERIE, AND HURON COUNTIES
UNTIL 6 PM TO ADVERTISE THE CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING. RAIN TOTALS WILL LIKELY BE SPORADIC ACROSS THE
WATCH AREA...THE GREATEST CONCERN WOULD BE IF SLOW-MOVING OR
TRAINING CONVECTION IMPACTS THE MORE URBAN TOLEDO AREA OR PLACES
THAT HAVE OTHERWISE SEEN HEAVY RAIN OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE, WE ARE STARTING MAINLY DRY THIS MORNING. THE TROUGH
AXIS OVER THE LAKE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ONSHORE ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OHIO LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THIS EVENING. WHILE ACTIVITY MAY NOT BE ESPECIALLY
FOCUSED OR ORGANIZED, DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ALONG
THE TROUGH AXIS FROM PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL OHIO POINTS EAST-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST OHIO. SKINNY INSTABILITY
PROFILES AND ELEVATED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.60-1.80"
INCHES WILL SUPPORT EFFICIENT RAIN-RATES WITH CONVECTION, WITH
GENERALLY WEAK WEST FLOW ALOFT SUPPORTING SLOWER STORM POTIONS
AND POTENTIALLY A BIT OF TRAINING ALONG THE SAGGING TROUGH AXIS.
THIS ADDS UP TO POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING ONCE AGAIN. THE MODEL SIGNAL IS SOMEWHAT MEDIOCRE FOR
HEAVY RAIN, LIKELY DUE TO THE FAIRLY MODEST FORCING. MODELS
THAT SEEM TO BE CAPTURING THE SETUP BEST AND HANDLED SUNDAY'S
SETUP BETTER, SUCH AS THE HRRR AND 3KM NAM, HAVE DECENT
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WITH LOCALIZED 2-4" QPF BULLSEYE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WITH PARTS OF THE AREA MORE PRONE TO RUN-OFF AFTER
SUNDAY'S RAIN AND IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES,
HOISTED ANOTHER FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM FROM LORAIN AND
MANSFIELD POINTS EAST THROUGH THE CLEVELAND, AKRON, CANTON AND
YOUNGSTOWN AREAS. A SOMEWHAT MARGINAL WATCH, BUT IF TORRENTIAL
RATES IMPACT AN URBAN AREA OR PLACES THAT SAW HEAVY RAINFALL ON
SUNDAY LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING COULD QUICKLY DEVELOP.
IN TERMS OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TODAY, WE ARE NOT
OUTLOOKED BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER AND ARE NOT EXPECTING
ANY SORT OF AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT GIVEN SKINNY,
SOMEWHAT MARGINAL INSTABILITY PROFILES AND RATHER LIMITED
AMOUNTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DUE TO MODEST FLOW ALOFT. IF
THERE IS ONE THING TO CONSIDER, IT IS THAT THE LOW IN THE REGION
WILL PROVIDE FOR PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY, PARTICULARLY
ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS THAT WILL SAG ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY
EXPECTED, A FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS MAY STRETCH LOW-LEVEL
VORTICITY INTO THE VERTICAL AND ATTAIN TRANSIENT ROTATION. IF
ANYTHING, THIS WOULD ENCOURAGE LARGER, SLOWER-MOVING UPDRAFTS
THAT PROVIDE GREATER CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAIN. IF WE SEE ANY MORE
SUSTAINED ROTATING UPDRAFTS AS WE DID ON SUNDAY THE CONCERN FOR
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS A FUNNEL CLOUD/LOW END TORNADO
WOULD BE THERE. OVERALL, THIS SEEMS TO BE ON THE LESS LIKELY
SIDE UNLESS WE SEE A CONVECTIVELY AIDED VORT MAX OR MESO-LOW
DEVELOP LIKE WE DID ON SUNDAY.
WE WILL LARGELY DRY OUT TONIGHT, THOUGH CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING LOW. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS, AND PERHAPS A STORM, WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME
HEATING ON TUESDAY ACROSS EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. COVERAGE SHOULD BE MUCH LESS THAN RECENT DAYS WITH NO REAL
CONCERN FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR ADDITIONAL FLOODING. TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. RENEWED SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES ENTER ON THURSDAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND LINGER INTO FRIDAY. WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND FAIRLY MODEST FLOW ALOFT POINT TO A LOWER-END
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IF ANYTHING. HOWEVER, WILL STILL
KEEP AN EYE ON THE SETUP AS WE GET CLOSER, ESPECIALLY IF WE'RE
ABLE TO SEE CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT CLOSER TO PEAK HEATING
HOURS THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE MAIN MESSAGE FOR AVIATION WEATHER WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH VARIABLE FLYING CONDITIONS AROUND
CONVECTION IMPACTING TAF SITES. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH POCKETS OF HEAVIER
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO IMPACT TAF SITES OVER NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NWPA. THE GENERAL EXPECTATION IS MVFR CEILINGS AND CONDITIONS
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. PROB30 GROUPS
HIGHLIGHT A 6 HOUR WINDOW WHERE CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE TO BRING
AT LEAST IFR CONDITIONS IF NOT BRIEFLY LIFR WEATHER TODAY. IFR
CEILINGS MAY RETURN FOR MFD, CLE, CAK, YNG, AND ERI LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND
THE WEAK SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. EASTERLY
TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 8 TO 12 KNOTS EXPECTED NORTH OF
THE SURFACE LOW TRACK. SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WINDS 5 TO 10
KNOTS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE LOW TRACK.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
A MESO LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN BASIN OF LAKE ERIE THIS
MORNING. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY MOVING ON
SHORE NEAR THE CLEVELAND AREA. EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST
OVER THE LAKE TODAY 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WAVES OVER THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL BASIN WILL BE UP TO 4 FEET AND HAS PROMPTED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY AND ASSOCIATED BEACH HAZARD STATEMENTS FOR A HIGH RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION OVER
THE WESTERN BASIN OF LAKE ERIE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MESO LOW MAY
PRODUCE WATERSPOUTS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. A RESIDUAL WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH MAY LINGER OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD CONTINUE A NORTHEASTERLY TO NORTHERLY FLOW 8
TO 15 KNOTS OVER LAKE ERIE. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE AREA THURSDAY WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW 5 TO
10 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY WITH A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND 10 KNOTS BEHIND IT. NO OTHER MARINE
HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK BESIDE TODAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OHZ003-007-
009.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ003-006>009-019.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR OHZ010-011.
FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR OHZ010>013-020>023-029>033.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ142>144.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR LEZ145-146.
DISCUSSION...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...77
MARINE...77
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