065
FXUS61 KCLE 061913
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
313 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
EXPANDED THE FLOOD WATCH FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA. FLASH FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE INTO THIS
EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
2) THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA INTO THIS EVENING WITH
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL RATES OF 2 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR. THESE
EXTREME RATES HAVE ALREADY RESULTED IN NUMEROUS FLASH FLOODING
IMPACTS ACROSS THE AREA, AND ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING REMAINS
POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS AND STORMS SLOWLY PIVOT EAST AND EXIT THE
AREA LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT, HAVE
EXPANDED THE FLOOD WATCH INTO ASHTABULA, CRAWFORD, AND INLAND
ERIE COUNTIES THROUGH 11 PM THIS EVENING. MAY HAVE TO EXTEND IN
TIME A PORTION OF THE FLOOD WATCH OUT WEST THAT GOES AWAY AT 6
PM IF LINGERING FLOODING ISSUES PERSIST.
OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE OVERNIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. STILL COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE OH/PA BORDER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, THOUGH THE OVERALL FLOODING THREAT SHOULD BE LOWER.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AFTER BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY, ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARDS THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH RECENT
GUIDANCE HAS SUGGESTED A MORE DELAYED TIMING FOR THE COLD
FRONT WHICH WOULD ALSO POINT TO A LOWER RISK OF STRONGER STORMS.
DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT, COULD SEE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA. WILL ALSO
NEED TO MONITOR THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
ANOTHER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPS TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK, CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS RETURNING TO NEAR 1.80 INCHES.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A MIX BAG OF CONDITIONS ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND STORMS. WITHIN THESE STORMS, CONDITIONS HAVE
DETERIORATED AS LOW AS LIFR VISIBILITIES. THESE STORMS ARE VERY
SLOW MOVING AND WILL RESULT IN MULTIPLE HOURS OF DETERIORATED
CONDITIONS AT ANY TERMINAL IMPACTED. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH
TIMING, OPTED TO USE TEMPO TO HANDLE MUCH OF THE CONVECTION BUT
WILL UPDATE TO PREVAILING AS NEEDED TO HANDLE THE IMPACTS. ALL
STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. BEHIND THESE STORMS,
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL BUILD IN AND PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP,
ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN TERMINALS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW
TO IMPROVE ON TUESDAY MORNING, LIKELY KEEPING AT LEAST MVFR
CEILINGS AROUND INTO THE LATE MORNING. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE KTOL
AND KFDY WHICH MAY BE ABLE TO REBOUND MUCH QUICKER.
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10-12 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. AS THE
CENTER OF THE LOW DRIFTS EAST TOMORROW, WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
GAIN A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KNOTS AGAIN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
A MESO LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN BASIN OF LAKE ERIE THIS
MORNING. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY MOVING ON
SHORE NEAR THE CLEVELAND AREA. EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST
OVER THE LAKE TODAY 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WAVES OVER THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL BASIN WILL BE UP TO 4 FEET AND HAS PROMPTED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY AND ASSOCIATED BEACH HAZARD STATEMENTS FOR A HIGH RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION OVER
THE WESTERN BASIN OF LAKE ERIE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MESO LOW MAY
PRODUCE WATERSPOUTS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. A RESIDUAL WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH MAY LINGER OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD CONTINUE A NORTHEASTERLY TO NORTHERLY FLOW 8
TO 15 KNOTS OVER LAKE ERIE. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE AREA THURSDAY WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW 5 TO
10 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY WITH A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND 10 KNOTS BEHIND IT. NO OTHER MARINE
HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK BESIDE TODAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ003-006>009-019.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
OHZ003-007-009>011.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ010>014-
020>023-029>033.
PA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ002-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ142>146.
DISCUSSION...KAHN
AVIATION...04
MARINE...77
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