064
FXUS61 KCLE 062359
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
759 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELED AS THE RISK FOR FLASH
FLOODING HAS ENDED FOR THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
2) THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
STILL COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE OH/PA BORDER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, THOUGH THE OVERALL FLOODING THREAT SHOULD BE LOWER.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AFTER BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY, ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARDS THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH RECENT
GUIDANCE HAS SUGGESTED A MORE DELAYED TIMING FOR THE COLD
FRONT WHICH WOULD ALSO POINT TO A LOWER RISK OF STRONGER STORMS.
DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT, COULD SEE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA. WILL ALSO
NEED TO MONITOR THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
ANOTHER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPS TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK, CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS RETURNING TO NEAR 1.80 INCHES.0
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
PRECIPITATION HAS LARGELY EXITED THE AREA AS OF 00Z, LEAVING
BEHIND A VARIABLE CLOUD COVER AND CEILING CONDITIONS. CEILINGS
ARE MOSTLY VFR WITH A FEW POCKETS OF MVFR. CEILINGS SHOULD TEND
TO DETERIORATE TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MIDDLE PORTION OF
OUR FORECAST AREA, WHERE AN AREA OF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCUR, ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FOG OR BR. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE BACK TO VFR BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT BECOME 5 TO 9 KNOTS OUT OF THE
NORTH TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
A VERY SLOW MOVING MESO-LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
OHIO HAS MAINTAINED A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS OF 15-20 KNOTS HAVE RESULTED IN WAVES OF 1-4
FEET ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL BASINS. GIVEN THIS CONTINUED
FLOW AND INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
AND BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 PM EDT.
AS THE CENTER OF THIS AFOREMENTIONED LOW GRADUALLY MOVES EAST
TUESDAY, WINDS WILL GRADUALLY GAIN A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT
AND BE SUSTAINED AT 5-10 KNOTS. THIS WILL KEEP NEARSHORE WAVE
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN 1-3 FEET ON TUESDAY. WINDS ON
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM BUILDS EAST AND PERSISTS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ON
FRIDAY, ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE
LAKE, ALLOWING FOR SOUTHWEST WINDS TO GRADUALLY BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY ALLOW WAVES TO BUILD TO
AROUND 2 FEET, BUT NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THIS WEEKEND.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
OHZ003-007-009>011.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ142>146.
DISCUSSION...KAHN/SAUNDERS
AVIATION...SAUNDERS
MARINE...04
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