181
FXUS61 KCLE 070449
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1249 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026
..06Z TAF AVIATION UPDATE
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELED AS THE RISK FOR FLASH
FLOODING HAS ENDED FOR THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
2) THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
STILL COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE OH/PA BORDER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, THOUGH THE OVERALL FLOODING THREAT SHOULD BE LOWER.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AFTER BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY, ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARDS THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH RECENT
GUIDANCE HAS SUGGESTED A MORE DELAYED TIMING FOR THE COLD
FRONT WHICH WOULD ALSO POINT TO A LOWER RISK OF STRONGER STORMS.
DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT, COULD SEE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA. WILL ALSO
NEED TO MONITOR THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
ANOTHER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPS TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK, CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS RETURNING TO NEAR 1.80 INCHES.0
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE MAIN MESSAGE FOR AVIATION WEATHER WITH THIS TAF UPDATE WILL
BE VARIABLE FLIGHT CATEGORY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
SUNRISE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
MORNING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT FDY AND TOL. AT
CLE, MFD, CAK, YNG, AND ERI, CONDITIONS WILL BECOME LOWER END
MVFR TO IFR FLIGHT CATEGORY THROUGH SUNRISE THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE LATER THIS MORNING BACK TO
VFR CEILINGS BY MIDDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST 4 TO 9
KNOTS DURING THIS TAF TIME WINDOW.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER LAKE ERIE TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW WILL BE FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
TODAY AND TONIGHT 5 TO 15 KNOTS WITH WAVES OF 1 TO 3 FEET. THE
FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE WEAKER AND VARIABLE BY WEDNESDAY LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS AND WAVES LESS THAN 2 FEET. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW 8
TO 12 KNOTS WILL RETURN THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH
WAVES 1 TO 2 FEET IN THE NEARSHORE WATER. A PUSH OF
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS AND WAVES UP TO 2 FEET WILL
FOLLOW THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. NO MARINE
HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KAHN/SAUNDERS
AVIATION...77
MARINE...77
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