028
FXUS61 KCLE 071044
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
644 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026
..12Z TAF AVIATION FORECAST UPDATE
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
AFFECT THE AREA WILL BE A COLD FRONT LATE THIS WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
2) THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE BROAD/WEAK LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE AREA
SINCE SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY EXIT TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST TODAY, ALLOWING FOR A MUCH DRIER AND SOMEWHAT SUNNIER
FORECAST. SOME PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD QUICKLY LIFT
AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE, A FEW SPRINKLES OR MINOR SHOWERS MAY
IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OHIO (MAINLY IN THE HILLS SOUTH OF
LAKE ERIE) THIS MORNING, WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS FAVORED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
INTERIOR EASTERN OHIO AND INTO INTERIOR WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA.
COVERAGE WILL BE MUCH LOWER THAN RECENT DAYS, AND THE ATMOSPHERE
ISN'T QUITE AS SUPPORTIVE OF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. STORM MOTIONS
WILL BE SLOW SO CAN'T RULE OUT SOME LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING IF
WE DO SEE A FEW STORMS DEVELOP, BUT OVERALL THE CONCERN IS MUCH
LOWER IN BOTH EXTENT AND MAGNITUDE THAN RECENT DAYS.
ANY SHOWER/THUNDER ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND/OR DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET THIS EVENING. THERE APPEARS TO BE
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND A HUMID AIRMASS TO
TEAM UP TO ALLOW FOR SOME FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A TRANQUIL/DRY DAY AS A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. JUST A SMALL
CHANCE FOR A VERY ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER ACROSS INTERIOR
NORTHWEST PA. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH
PERHAPS A BIT OF FOG AGAIN THOUGH LIKELY MORE LOCALIZED IF ANY.
HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S, PERHAPS
SLIGHTLY WARMER IN TOLEDO. HIGHS WILL TICK UP A COUPLE DEGREES
OR SO FOR WEDNESDAY, WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS,
THOUGH LOCATIONS ALONG THE LAKE (ESPECIALLY CLEVELAND) MAY
STRUGGLE TO DIP BELOW 70. WHILE DEW POINTS WON'T BE QUITE AS
TROPICAL AS THE LAST NUMBER OF DAYS, IT'LL STILL BE ON THE HUMID
SIDE WITH VALUES GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 60S TODAY/WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A MODEST TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHEAST TO END THE WEEK,
PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY. AS THE
PRIOR DISCUSSION MENTIONED, THERE HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE TREND
TO SLOW DOWN THE FRONT'S PASSAGE A BIT OVER THE LAST FEW MODEL
CYCLES. INITIAL SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM, HUMID, AND MODESTLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS RETURNS TO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.
LARGE SCALE FORCING ON THURSDAY WILL BE MODEST, THOUGH THERE ARE
HINTS OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE OR VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY. OVERALL, CONFIDENCE IN SOME PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON IS MEDIUM-HIGH, THOUGH COVERAGE MAY END UP
REMAINING ON THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SIDE GIVEN THE LACK OF
FORCING. GREATER POTENTIAL IS EVIDENT THURSDAY NIGHT AS
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS CLOSER TO THE APPROACHING FRONT SPREADS
EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. WITH THE HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE
AND WARM LAKE, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO MAINTAIN
ITSELF OVERNIGHT. WITH THE FRONT LIKELY NOT CROSSING THE AREA
UNTIL FRIDAY AND NOT COMPLETELY EXITING TO OUR SOUTH UNTIL
FRIDAY EVENING, EXPECT AT LEAST SOME RE-DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ON FRIDAY. COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY ON FRIDAY HAS
POTENTIAL TO BE DECENT IF THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOW,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY APPEARS FAIRLY
MARGINAL, GIVEN WARM MID-LEVELS LEADING TO MARGINAL AND SKINNY
INSTABILITY PROFILES. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE WEAK ON THURSDAY,
PROVIDING FOR VERY LIMITED AMOUNTS OF SHEAR. FLOW ALOFT DOES
INCREASE A BIT ON FRIDAY, PERHAPS OFFERING MARGINALLY MORE
SHEAR FOR A NON-ZERO (BUT LIKELY STILL LOWER-END) SEVERE THREAT.
THE ENVIRONMENT DOES BECOME CONDUCIVE TO TORRENTIAL RAIN RATES
WITHIN CONVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES CLIMB TO AROUND 1.80" AMID A WARM ATMOSPHERE, WITH
MODEST AND GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SUPPORTING SLOWER STORM
MOTIONS AND PERHAPS A BIT OF TRAINING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
SAGGING FRONT. WILL WATCH FOR AT LEAST LOCALIZED POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING YET AGAIN IF WE'RE ABLE TO SEE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE MAIN MESSAGE FOR AVIATION WEATHER WITH THIS TAF UPDATE WILL
BE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING. SOME MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL BE AROUND EARLY
THIS MORNING BUT GIVE WAY TO VFR CEILINGS BY MIDDAY INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN AGAIN WITH
LIGHT FOG AND CEILINGS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OR FROM THE NORTH 4 TO 8 KNOTS DURING THIS TAF
TIME WINDOW.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER LAKE ERIE TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW WILL BE FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
TODAY AND TONIGHT 5 TO 15 KNOTS WITH WAVES OF 1 TO 3 FEET. THE
FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE WEAKER AND VARIABLE BY WEDNESDAY LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS AND WAVES LESS THAN 2 FEET. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW 8
TO 12 KNOTS WILL RETURN THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH
WAVES 1 TO 2 FEET IN THE NEARSHORE WATER. A PUSH OF
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS AND WAVES UP TO 2 FEET WILL
FOLLOW THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. NO MARINE
HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...77
MARINE...77
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