570
FXUS61 KCLE 080512
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
112 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2026
..06Z TAF AVIATION FORECAST UPDATE
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING. NO
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
2) THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. HEAVY
RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE LATEST SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REVEAL A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH LINGERING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE OH/PA BORDER, THE OVERALL INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF
DAYS, GIVEN A LACK OF FORCING AND INCREASED MID-LEVEL DRY AIR.
THUS, NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WITH THE RAIN,
OTHER THAN A FEW BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
APPEARS TO LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY, ALBEIT A BIT FURTHER EAST,
LIMITING RAIN CHANCES TO MAINLY NW PA OR ALONG THE OH/PA BORDER
IN THE AFTERNOON.
AS WAS THE CASE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS, WEAK FLOW AND A MOIST
GROUND WILL RESULT IN PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING, PARTICULARLY INLAND ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
OHIO.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARDS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT ALSO FROM THE WEST FRIDAY MORNING
AS A SHORTWAVE TRACKS EAST ALONG THE FRONT INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TIMING AND
LOCATION TRENDS FOR THIS SHORTWAVE. THOUGH WE CAN'T RULE OUT A
STRONGER STORM OR TWO WITH THIS SYSTEM, HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED
FLOODING STILL APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH PWATS
APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 1.80 INCHES.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE MAIN AVIATION WEATHER CONCERN FOR THIS 06Z TAF UPDATE WILL
BE SOME PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNRISE ACROSS
NEOH AND NWPA. FOR FDY, TOL, ERI, AND CLE, MVFR LIGHT FOG 3SM
TO 5SM WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z THIS MORNING. THE
BETTER CHANCE FOR MVFR FOG WILL BE AT MFD, CAK, AND YNG BETWEEN
08Z AND 13Z WITH ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR
2SM FOG AND BROKEN CEILINGS AROUND 700 FEET. WE HAVE TEMPO
GROUPS MENTIONING THIS POTENTIAL. AFTER SUNRISE, THE PATCHY FOG
AND ANY LOW STRATUS CEILINGS WILL QUICKLY LIFT OUT TO VFR
CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AFTER 14Z THIS MORNING. VFR
IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD LATER TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THIS MORNING
BEFORE BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY 5-10 KNOTS THROUGH
THE REST OF TODAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS RETURN AGAIN THIS
EVENING.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
OVERALL GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TOMORROW
WITH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND WAVES 1 FOOT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. A LIGHT LAND AND LAKE BREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
MORNING AND LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL BE WITH SLOW TO PASS THROUGH. WINDS WILL
EVENTUALLY SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH BY LATE FRIDAY. NEXT POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD IMPACT LOCALIZED MARINE CONDITIONS IS
THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER
LAKE ERIE THIS WEEKEND WITH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW 10 TO 15 KNOTS
ON SATURDAY AND WAVES 1 TO 3 FEET. NW WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS
EXPECTED SUNDAY AND WAVES 1 TO 2 FEET. MARINE HEADLINES ARE NOT
EXPECTED FOR LAKE ERIE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KAHN
AVIATION...77
MARINE...77
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