819
FXUS61 KCLE 080659
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
259 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS BEEN ADDED ACROSS
NORTHWEST OHIO AND LAKE ERIE FOR LATE THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL LATER THURSDAY.
2) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR A
FEW STORMS TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH SOME STORMS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
3) A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER WITH LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
BRIEF RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT TODAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. FOR
TODAY, WILL BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR PATCHY FOG FIRST THING THIS
MORNING. A MAINLY DRY AND SOMEWHAT WARM DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S (SLIGHTLY COOLER IN
THE FAR NORTHEAST, PERHAPS TOUCHING 90 IN TOLEDO). CAN'T RULE
OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM OVER THE HILLS OF NORTHWEST PA THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT THAT SHOULD BE IT. QUIET WEATHER PERSISTS TONIGHT
AS ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WITH A WEAK OHIO VALLEY SHORTWAVE STAY TO
OUR SOUTH. LOWS WILL MAINLY SETTLE IN THE 60S WITH PERHAPS JUST
A BIT OF PATCHY FOG IN THE USUAL INLAND VALLEYS OVERNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD
FRONT GRADUALLY APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE AREA. A GOOD PORTION
OF THURSDAY WILL REMAIN DRY. A SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS THAT MAY
AFFECT FAR EASTERN OHIO AND INLAND NORTHWESTERN PA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP CLOSER TO
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM LOWER MI INTO NORTHERN IN DURING
PEAK HEATING HOURS ON THURSDAY, WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ENCOURAGING THIS DEVELOPMENT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY SPREAD
TOWARDS NORTHWEST OH AND LAKE ERIE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. IT IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN IF THIS ACTIVITY CAN PROGRESS
EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS MORE OF THE AREA LATER THURSDAY EVENING AS
IT BEGINS OUTRUNNING THE FRONT, THOUGH THE SOUTHERN REACHES OF
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE AND A MODEST
BUT MOIST WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET MAY ALLOW ACTIVITY TO
MAINTAIN ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT ITSELF SLOWLY CROSSES LAKE ERIE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY FRIDAY, AND THEN GRADUALLY SAGS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING BEFORE CLEARING. THERE ARE
SOME HINTS THAT CONVECTION MAY RE-DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER
OR NEAR LAKE ERIE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS IS NOT AS CONFIDENT, BUT EITHER WAY THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
BLOSSOMING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS WE SEE HEATING OF THE MOIST PRE-FRONTAL
AIRMASS. SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA.
IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL, IT IS OVERALL ON THE LOWER
SIDE WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE SPC HAS INCLUDED NORTHWEST OH AND
LAKE ERIE IN A DAY 2 MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LATE THURSDAY. 20-25 KNOTS OF DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR AND A STRONGLY HEATED AND MIXED LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS COULD
SUPPORT LOOSE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT,
WHICH CAN SUPPORT THE MARGINAL DAMAGING WIND RISK. OTHERWISE,
THE ENVIRONMENT FEATURES MARGINAL AND SKINNY INSTABILITY
PROFILES AND OVERALL LIMITED WIND SHEAR, WHICH ARGUES AGAINST A
MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE ENVIRONMENT DOES
BECOME CONDUCIVE TO EFFICIENT RAIN RATES WITH ANY CONVECTION
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO
NEAR 1.80", WITH WARM MID-LEVELS SUPPORTING SKINNIER INSTABILITY
PROFILES. A MODEST WEST-SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL JET FEEDING INTO THE
SAGGING WEST-EAST ORIENTED COLD FRONT COULD ALSO SUPPORT A
LITTLE BIT OF TRAINING. WHILE COVERAGE AND PLACEMENT OF
CONVECTION BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY,
WILL NEED TO KEEP IN MIND THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED HEAVY
RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING RISK. THE WPC DOES HAVE A MARGINAL RISK
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THE LATE WEEK FRONT MAY STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH BY TO MAINTAIN A
LOW RISK FOR SHOWERS OR A STORM IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, PROVIDING FOR A MORE PROLONGED
PERIOD OF TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. STRONG RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD OVER THE PLAINS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THIS RIDGE WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA, THOUGH DRY CONDITIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH CONTINUED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LIMIT
THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO SPILL IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS SAID RIDGE TRIES EXPANDING TO THE EAST, BUT THERE
IS UNCERTAINTY OVER HOW QUICKLY TROUGHING OVER NEW ENGLAND GETS
KICKED OUT WHICH WILL AFFECT OUR TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE MAIN AVIATION WEATHER CONCERN FOR THIS 06Z TAF UPDATE WILL
BE SOME PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNRISE ACROSS
NEOH AND NWPA. FOR FDY, TOL, ERI, AND CLE, MVFR LIGHT FOG 3SM
TO 5SM WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z THIS MORNING. THE
BETTER CHANCE FOR MVFR FOG WILL BE AT MFD, CAK, AND YNG BETWEEN
08Z AND 13Z WITH ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR
2SM FOG AND BROKEN CEILINGS AROUND 700 FEET. WE HAVE TEMPO
GROUPS MENTIONING THIS POTENTIAL. AFTER SUNRISE, THE PATCHY FOG
AND ANY LOW STRATUS CEILINGS WILL QUICKLY LIFT OUT TO VFR
CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AFTER 14Z THIS MORNING. VFR
IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD LATER TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THIS MORNING
BEFORE BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY 5-10 KNOTS THROUGH
THE REST OF TODAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS RETURN AGAIN THIS
EVENING.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
OVERALL GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TOMORROW
WITH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND WAVES 1 FOOT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. A LIGHT LAND AND LAKE BREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
MORNING AND LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL BE WITH SLOW TO PASS THROUGH. WINDS WILL
EVENTUALLY SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH BY LATE FRIDAY. NEXT POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD IMPACT LOCALIZED MARINE CONDITIONS IS
THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER
LAKE ERIE THIS WEEKEND WITH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW 10 TO 15 KNOTS
ON SATURDAY AND WAVES 1 TO 3 FEET. NW WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS
EXPECTED SUNDAY AND WAVES 1 TO 2 FEET. MARINE HEADLINES ARE NOT
EXPECTED FOR LAKE ERIE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...77
MARINE...77
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