481
FXUS61 KCLE 090604
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
204 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE FORECAST REMAINS GENERALLY ON TRACK. THE MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE EASTERN
LAKESHORE AREAS AND INCLUDES MORE OF NORTHWEST OHIO.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR NORTHWEST
OHIO AND EXTENDING EAST ALONG THE LAKESHORE THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
2) CONDITIONS DRY OUT OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A TROUGH MOVING
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WITH MOISTURE SPREADING NORTH
AHEAD OF IT. MEANWHILE, A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH IS MOVING INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE THURSDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. THE AIRMASS REMAINS VERY DRY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE BUT THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.
MOST OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY WILL BE DRY BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE
IN NORTHEAST OHIO/NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. OTHERWISE A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST OHIO BY
LATE AFTERNOON WITH COVERAGE INCREASING THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES. ML CAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REACH 1500-2000
J/KG IN NW OHIO ALONG WITH SHEAR INCREASING THURSDAY EVENING AS
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES ALOFT. THE MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1
OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS BEEN EXPANDED SLIGHTLY TO INCLUDE
MORE OF NORTHWEST OHIO AND NOW EXTENDS EASTWARD ALONG THE
LAKESHORE WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE
WIND GUSTS OF 50-60 MPH WITH THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY EVENING.
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH PW VALUES
INCREASING TO OVER 2 INCHES. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH POPS FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AS MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POCKETS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH TRAINING OF STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE MEAN FLOW SET UP
NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE STORM MOTION.
ON FRIDAY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
INSTABILITY MAY BE KEPT TO MODEST VALUES WITH HIGHER CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED. STILL EXPECTING CONTINUED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ON FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE FRONT IS SLOW TO CLEAR THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WHILE A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY,
THE TREND WILL BE FOR DRIER CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE NORTH. LOW POPS
REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH INTO SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A MOSTLY DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND, A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRIES TO EXPAND EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO SURPASS 90 DEGREES IN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA BUT WILL DEPEND ON THE OUR PROXIMITY TO THE
RIDGE. THERE IS A LARGER SPREAD IN ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK
BASED ON IF THE RIDGE IS OVERHEAD OR IF WE ARE ON THE DOWNSTREAM
SIDE OF IT. WILL BE MONITORING THE OVERALL PATTERN EVOLUTION OVER
THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LARGELY EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD WITH MID TO UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA,
AND CONDITIONS TOO DRY FOR FOG THIS MORNING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, THOUGH LOW
COVERAGE OF STORMS AND UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING WILL LIMIT THE
INCLUSION OF TSRA OR NON-VFR CONDITIONS IN MOST TAFS. BEST
CONFIDENCE IS AT KTOL WHERE MOST MODELS HAVE CONVECTION MOVING
IN DURING THE AFTERNOON, WHEN PEAK HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING LIGHTING (THOUGH STILL RELATIVELY LOW
SO ONLY INCLUDED A PROB30).
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS
OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KNOTS
BECOME WEST DURING THE DAY WITH WAVES GENERALLY 2 FEET OR LESS.
A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE
WESTERN BASIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE COVERAGE INCREASES
ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEFLY HIGHER WAVE HEIGHTS.
WINDS WILL TURN WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY, THEN
NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE
LAKE. WAVE SHOULD REMAIN 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH 1
TO 3 FEET POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN BASIN THIS WEEKEND.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...SAUNDERS
MARINE...SAUNDERS
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