433
FXUS61 KCLE 100556
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
156 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE OVERNIGHT IS DECREASING AND HAVE DRIED
OUT THE FORECAST; A STORM COMPLEX MOVING ACROSS LAKE ERIE WILL
NEED SOME WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AS A
COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE AREA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE (LEVEL 1 OF 5) AND PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN.
2) DRY CONDITIONS RETURN ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING WARMER
INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE OVER NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA HAS
DECREASED SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. A COUPLE
CELLS ATTEMPT TO REDEVELOP ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
EARLIER CONVECTION BUT THEY ARE SHORTLIVED. HAVE UPDATED POPS TO
REFLECT A MORE DRY FORECAST TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
ONE FEATURE TO WATCH WILL BE A SMALL COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT WILL
PUSH SOUTH FROM LOWER ONTARIO ONTO LAKE ERIE. THERE ARE SOME
HINTS THAT THE COMPLEX WILL TRY TO REACH THE SHORELINE TONIGHT
BUT A GUST FRONT AHEAD OF THE STORMS MAY UNDERCUT THE STORM
INTENSITY AND ALLOW FOR THIS COMPLEX TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
SOUTH.
A GENERAL UPTICK IN STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED AGAIN AS WE
DESTABILIZE ON FRIDAY ALONG THE FRONT. TRAINING OF STORMS
RESULTING IN POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE THE MAIN CONCERN ON
FRIDAY WITH STORM MOTION OF ONLY 10-15 MPH. THE 12Z HREF IS
SHOWING VERY LOW PROBABILITIES OF THREE HOUR RAINFALL EXCEEDING
3 INCHES IN SOME OF THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH ACTIVITY SETTLING SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING.
ANOTHER ROBUST SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY AND HAVE CONTINUED WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES DROP BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S BEHIND THE
FRONT BY SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY AND SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL BRING SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY WEATHER.
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS
STATES NEXT WEEK. THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF THE RIDGE WILL IMPACT
TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN NORTHWEST OHIO WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE TOWARDS NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH
AND/OR POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZES. THE 12Z GFS WAS STRONGER WITH THE
NEW ENGLAND TROUGH THAN THE CONSENSUS AND CONTINUED WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE AREA NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A DISORGANIZED CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
TRAVERSE THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. IT'S
UNCERTAIN WHAT THIS CONVECTION WILL DO EAST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR
LATER THIS MORNING BUT THE EXPECTATION IS FOR IT DISSIPATE TO
LIGHT SHOWERS. THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE THAT IT CONTINUES
EAST TOWARDS KCLE/KCAK/KYNG WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED LIGHTNING.
VISIBILITY DOWN TO 2 SM IS POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS AFTERNOON, ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES, EXCEPT KERI. AT KCLE, THEY MAY
DEVELOP A BIT EARLIER AROUND MID TO LATE MORNING. HEAVY RAIN IS
LIKELY WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS WITH VISIBILITY DOWN TO 2 SM OR
LOWER. GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS COULD BE POSSIBLE BUT
SCATTERED NATURE AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE PREVENTS A
MENTION IN THE TAF.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY. NORTHEAST
WINDS DEVELOP TONIGHT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. THOSE NORTHEAST WINDS
GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM 5-10 KNOTS TONIGHT TO AROUND 15 KNOTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WAVES INCREASE TO AROUND 2-3 FEET SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH GREATEST WAVE HEIGHTS EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL
BASIN. NORTHEAST WINDS BACK OFF SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE RETURNING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS AND WAVES AROUND 2-3
FEET.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVERHEAD. WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE SOUTHEAST. WAVES GENERALLY EXPECTED
TO BE LESS THAN 1 FOOT.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...10/SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...SAUNDERS
MARINE...04
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