677
FXUS61 KCLE 100610
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
210 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SHOULD TAPER OFF
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON WITH HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.
2) TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO TREND WARMER STARTING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH
THIS EVENING BRINGING INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE REGION
WITH THE SUPPORT OF AN UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FIRE ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO DESTABILIZE. SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS ARE
GENERALLY ON THE LOWER END, SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY WIDESPREAD
IMPACTS. THOUGH A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WOULDN'T BE OUT OF THE REALM
OF POSSIBILITIES WITH MLCAPE NEAR 1000-1500 J/KG AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES NEAR 7-8 C/KM SUPPORTING STRONG WIND GUSTS FROM THOSE STORMS.
ADDITIONALLY, HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A CONCERN WITH SLOW STORM MOTION
(10-15 MPH) AND HIGH PW VALUES (~1.7 IN) ACROSS THE REGION. THE
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WOULD BE THE MOST PROBABLE TO SEE ANY FLOODING
CONCERNS THOUGH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY
AND WHERE STORMS INITIATE. WPC HAS INCLUDE THAT AREA IN A SLIGHT
RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR TODAY AND WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED AS STORMS BEGIN TO FIRE OFF THIS AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE INTO THE EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY
DRIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
ON SATURDAY, ANOTHER VORT MAX WILL MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE REGION
THAT AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A LOW END CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES UP
INTO PENNSYLVANIA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
STARTING SUNDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
GENERALLY, FLOW WILL BE WEAK AS THE RIDGE SETS UP OVERHEAD THROUGH
MONDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S ON SUNDAY, INCREASING TO THE
UPPER 80S ON MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S. ON
TUESDAY, THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST AND WESTERLY
FLOW WILL TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL INCREASE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK ONWARDS WITH CONFIDENCE
INCREASING IN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND NORTHEASTERN CONUS MAY KEEP
TEMPERATURES A TOUCH COOLER FOR THOSE IN FAR EASTERN OHIO AND
NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. THOUGH, THOSE FINER DETAILS WILL BE
WORKED OUT OVER THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A DISORGANIZED CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
TRAVERSE THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. IT'S
UNCERTAIN WHAT THIS CONVECTION WILL DO EAST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR
LATER THIS MORNING BUT THE EXPECTATION IS FOR IT DISSIPATE TO
LIGHT SHOWERS. THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE THAT IT CONTINUES
EAST TOWARDS KCLE/KCAK/KYNG WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED LIGHTNING.
VISIBILITY DOWN TO 2 SM IS POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS AFTERNOON, ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES, EXCEPT KERI. AT KCLE, THEY MAY
DEVELOP A BIT EARLIER AROUND MID TO LATE MORNING. HEAVY RAIN IS
LIKELY WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS WITH VISIBILITY DOWN TO 2 SM OR
LOWER. GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS COULD BE POSSIBLE BUT
SCATTERED NATURE AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE PREVENTS A
MENTION IN THE TAF.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY. NORTHEAST
WINDS DEVELOP TONIGHT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. THOSE NORTHEAST WINDS
GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM 5-10 KNOTS TONIGHT TO AROUND 15 KNOTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WAVES INCREASE TO AROUND 2-3 FEET SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH GREATEST WAVE HEIGHTS EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL
BASIN. NORTHEAST WINDS BACK OFF SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE RETURNING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS AND WAVES AROUND 2-3
FEET.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVERHEAD. WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE SOUTHEAST. WAVES GENERALLY EXPECTED
TO BE LESS THAN 1 FOOT.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION...SAUNDERS
MARINE...SAUNDERS
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