952
FXUS61 KCLE 101901
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
301 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST OHIO INTO THIS EVENING AS TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING REMAIN POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
TORRENTIAL RAIN AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
2) TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER BY EARLY TO MID-NEXT WEEK WITH
LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH RECENT SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGESTING
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF
EXISTING CELLS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS SURFACE
CONVERGENCE INCREASES TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH ANY
SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THIS EVENING CONTINUES TO BE A HEAVY
RAIN AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING THREAT. ALTHOUGH THE FLOOD
WATCH AREA ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OHIO
DENOTES THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AREA FOR FLOODING IMPACTS, ANY
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY CONTAIN TORRENTIAL RAINFALL RATES OF 2 TO
3 INCHES PER HOUR INTO THIS EVENING GIVEN THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE, CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK FLOW AND PWATS
EXCEEDING 1.80 INCHES.
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AFTER SUNSET
THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH, SETTLING NEAR OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE US-30 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, PARTICULARLY NEAR THE US-30 CORRIDOR, AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A WARMER AND DRIER PATTERN APPEARS FAVORED BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND THROUGH MID-NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
DEVELOPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS. THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE MAY BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND, THOUGH
LIMITED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO ABOVE AVERAGE BY AS EARLY AS SUNDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, FURTHER INCREASING INTO THE
LOW TO PERHAPS MID-90S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY TRENDS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS
HEAT INDICES RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S, YIELDING AT LEAST
SOME POCKETS OF MAJOR HEAT RISK ON WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH.
THE LAKE BREEZE SHOULD KEEP ACTIVITY AWAY FROM CLEVELAND AND
ERIE BUT THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING FROM TOL TO NEAR MFD, AND
EXTENDING EAST TO CAK AND YNG. INCLUDED TEMPOS FOR ALL INLAND
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL LIKELY BE DONE AT TOL/FDY BY
20Z. IT IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME IF YNG WILL GET ADDITIONAL
STORMS LATER ON. HUMIDITY IS HIGH AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND IFR VISIBILITIES. WIND GUSTS ARE MOST
TYPICALLY AROUND 30-40 KNOTS WITH AN ISOLATED GUST TO 50 KNOTS
POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DONE AT TERMINALS BY
23Z.
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. MID AND HIGH CLOUD MAY
HANG AROUND THROUGH 06Z BUT COULD SEE VISIBILITIES START TO
DECLINE LATE TONIGHT AT MFD/CAK/YNG. INCLUDED MVFR VISIBILITIES
WITH A TEMPO FOR IFR VISIBILITIES. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE QUICKLY ON SATURDAY MORNING.
WINDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT,
VEERING TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS ARE OUT
OF THE EAST AT TOL AND NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT CLE AND ERI. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...VFR EXPECTED.
MARINE
A FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS OHIO THIS AFTERNOON WITH
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED ON LAKE ERIE ON SATURDAY. THE WIND
FORECAST HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY HIGHER ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF
LAKE ERIE AND A MODERATE SWIM RISK EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WILL BE
CHOPPY BUT EXPECTED TO BE JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH 2
TO 4 FOOT WAVES. NORTHEAST WINDS DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT THEN
INCREASE AGAIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS
AND WAVES AROUND 2-3 FEET.
MARINE CONDITIONS IMPROVE MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVERHEAD. WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE SOUTHEAST. WAVES GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
BE LESS THAN 1 FOOT.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ021>023-
029>033-037-038-047.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KAHN
AVIATION...10
MARINE...10
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