807
FXUS61 KCLE 110621
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
221 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES AS THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR
WITH LOW END CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
2) HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER
AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES LIKELY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF ACROSS WESTERN
OHIO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO DRIFTS TO
THE SOUTH. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO THE
PRECIPITATION TODAY AND CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT, THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. GENERALLY,
AREAS ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR COULD SEE FOG THIS
MORNING WITH INCREASING PROBABILITY FURTHER EAST. YOUNGSTOWN AND
SITES JUST ACROSS THE BOARDER INTO PENNSYLVANIA ARE ALREADY SEEING
VISIBILITY DROP DOWN TO LESS THAN HALF A MILE. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS OVER THE COMING HOURS TO SEE HOW WIDESPREAD FOG MAY
DEVELOP. BY MID MORNING, ANY FOG SHOULD CLEAR OUT AND CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL HAVE MORE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT THIS AFTERNOON AS A VORT MAX MOVES WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING LOW END PRECIPITATION CHANCES
MAINLY TO AREAS SOUTH OF US ROUTE 30. ISOLATED NUISANCE FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS DUE TO THE SLOW STORM
MOTION, BUT THE BETTER PROBABILITY WILL BE TO THE SOUTH. AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL DECREASE INTO THE EVENING TO BE DRY BY TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS
ON SUNDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK THROUGH MONDAY,
BUT WILL SHIFT TO BE OUT OF THE WEST BY TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES
WILL INCREASE TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. GIVEN
THE PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE, THERE WON'T BE AS MUCH MOISTURE BEING
PULLED UP NORTH, SO DEW POINTS SHOULD STAY LOWER COMPARED TO LAST
WEEK LIMITING ELEVATED HEAT INDICES. REGARDLESS, PROBABILISTIC HEAT
RISK INCREASES INTO THE MAJOR CATEGORY FOR PORTION OF THE REGION
STARTING TUESDAY AS HEAT INDICES WILL STILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S.
CONCURRENTLY, A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND CONUS
THAT WILL BRING WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. UNLIKELY TO BRING ANY PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION, IT MAY
ASSIST IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES ACROSS EASTERN
OHIO INTO PENNSYLVANIA.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AREAS OF FOG AND IFR (OR LOWER) CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH TO ABOUT 1-2 HOURS AFTER SUNRISE
THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 1/4 SM AND CEILINGS DOWN TO
200-300 FT WILL BE POSSIBLE. DURATION AND PERSISTENCE OF FOG IS
EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST AT AND NEAR KYNG.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING AROUND 8-12 KNOTS WILL BE
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST WITH SPORADIC GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS WITH
SLIGHTLY STRONG WINDS NEAR THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE. WINDS
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KNOTS BY TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
AND MONDAY MORNING.
MARINE
A FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS OHIO THIS AFTERNOON WITH
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED ON LAKE ERIE ON SATURDAY. THE WIND
FORECAST HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY HIGHER ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF
LAKE ERIE AND A MODERATE SWIM RISK EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WILL BE
CHOPPY BUT EXPECTED TO BE JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH 2
TO 4 FOOT WAVES. NORTHEAST WINDS DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT THEN
INCREASE AGAIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS
AND WAVES AROUND 2-3 FEET.
MARINE CONDITIONS IMPROVE MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVERHEAD. WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE SOUTHEAST. WAVES GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
BE LESS THAN 1 FOOT.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION...SAUNDERS
MARINE...10
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