019
FXUS61 KCLE 112354
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
754 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES AS THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A STATIONARY BOUNDARY LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE FOCUS OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. HEAVY RAIN WITH
THESE STORMS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN.
2) HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TONIGHT, BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING WEST-EAST ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO
CONTINUES TO BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS KY/TN. AS DIURNAL HEATING CONTINUES TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON, EXPECTED AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE DUE TO AN
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH ALL OF THESE
STORMS IS THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND SUBSEQUENT FLOODING
CONCERNS. PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA COUPLE
WITH DEEPENING WARM CLOUD LAYERS AND A FLOW PARALLEL TO THE
BOUNDARY MAY RESULT IN LOCAL FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY
IN AREAS WHERE STORMS BEGIN TO TRAIN OR IN AREAS IMPACTED
MULTIPLE TIMES. THESE STORMS ARE ALSO MOVING RATHER SLOW WHICH
WILL PROLONG THE DURATION OF RAINFALL WITH RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1
TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED MULTIPLE MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION
DISCUSSIONS TODAY HIGHLIGHTING THIS CONCERN.
THIS EVENING, THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE AS IT
PUSHES SOUTH, ALLOWING FOR THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
DIMINISH ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. BEHIND
THE DEPARTING FRONT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH AND MARK THE
END OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR A BIT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHES OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY, MARKING THE START OF A PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK BEFORE A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN RETURNS
LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH THIS DOMINANT HIGH AND
ASSOCIATED RIDGE, TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 90S BY
WEDNESDAY WITH HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 100 DEGREES(F) ACROSS
WESTERN COUNTIES. GIVEN MULTIPLE DAYS OF HOT CONDITIONS WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S, BY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THERE IS MODERATE TO HIGH HEAT RISK ACROSS
THE AREA. ELEVATED HEAT RISKS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AS SYNOPTIC FLOW GAINS A MORE
NORTHERLY COMPONENT. BY FRIDAY, CONDITIONS BEGIN TO COOL A BIT
AND THE HEAT RISK DIMINISHES TO MINOR. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE FORECAST AND TRENDS IN MOISTURE IN THE COMING DAYS TO
DETERMINE EXTENT OF IMPACT EXPECTED WITH THIS MID-JULY PUSH OF
HEAT.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING WITH VFR TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A SCT TO BKN DECK MAY DEVELOP EAST OF
THE I-71 CORRIDOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE. NO THUNDER IS EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY FAVOR A NORTHEAST DIRECTION AROUND 5 TO 7
KNOTS OVERNIGHT, INCREASING INTO THE 10 TO 12 KNOTS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. A FEW GUSTS OF 20 TO 22 KNOTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK...VFR FAVORED THROUGH THURSDAY.
MARINE
CHOPPY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AS NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WILL ALLOW FOR WAVE
HEIGHTS TO BUILD TO 2-4 FEET IN THE CENTRAL BASIN. A MODERATE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. SWIMMING IS DISCOURAGED.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR NEXT WEEK
LEADING TO IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS ON MONDAY BECOME SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
EXITS TO THE EAST. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS TURN WEST ON
WEDNESDAY WITH WAVE HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 2-3 FEET IN THE EASTERN
BASIN.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...KAHN
MARINE...13
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