331
FXUS61 KCLE 260520
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
120 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY,
BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF STORMS REMAINS LOW.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STORMS MAY OCCASIONALLY BE
STRONG TO SEVERE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE ON MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN UNFOLDS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.
A RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE TO THE WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH
MONDAY WITH A TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS.
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL CREST THE RIDGE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT, RESULTING IN MULTIPLE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEK. THERE'S STILL QUITE
A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING/PLACEMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS
AND THE RESULTING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND THE TRAJECTORIES OF ANY MCS ACTIVITY
WILL RELY ON MESOSCALE FEATURES THAT HAVE YET TO BE RESOLVED.
SOME CAMS SUGGEST THAT SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE
AN ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DURING THAT TIME GIVEN THE
INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA, BUT THE
THREAT IS PRETTY ISOLATED AT THIS POINT. MEANWHILE, AN MCS WILL
FOLLOW AN INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND PUSH SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING PEAK HEATING BEFORE EITHER CLIPPING OR
MISSING THE LOCAL AREA JUST TO THE WEST SUNDAY EVENING OR
OVERNIGHT. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR CAMS AND ADJUST THE
FORECAST AS NEEDED; AS OF NOW CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL SUNDAY IS LOW AND THE THREAT IS CONDITIONAL. THERE IS
A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS MOST
LOCAL OHIO ZONES.
CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS IS HIGHER FOR MONDAY SINCE THE RIDGE
WILL BE SHIFTING EAST INTO A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR
CONVECTION MAKING IT INTO THE AREA. THERE MAY BE PERIODIC
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY, ALTHOUGH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RELY ON HOW SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING PANS OUT. ANOTHER MCS WILL LIKELY PUSH SOUTHEAST OR
DEVELOP ALONG REMNANT BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE REGION AT SOME POINT
LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
BE HIGHER ON MONDAY THANKS TO BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES SO THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5)
OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL MOST LIKELY BE THE MAIN THREAT. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON MODEL TRENDS AND UPDATE THE
FORECAST/MESSAGING AS CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE
INCREASES.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WITH LAKE-
ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY CONTINUING ACROSS
NE OH/NW PA INTO WEDNESDAY DUE TO PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVERHEAD.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN BY EARLY THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SOME 5SM BR AT THE TERMINALS AWAY FORM THE LAKE TOWARDS MORNING
FOR A FEW HOURS, USING TEMPO INSTEAD OF PREVAILING. VFR, ANOTHER
CUMULUS FIELD THIS AFTERNOON FL035-045. WINDS WSW/W 10KTS AT THE
SURFACE. CONVECTIVE CHANCES INCREASING, ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z FOR
THE WESTERN TERMINALS AS WILL HAVE TO WATCH INCOMING COMPLEXES
FROM THE NORTH, BUT NO MENTION AT TERMINALS FOR NOW AS CHANCES
LOW THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE WITH PERIODIC SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
MARINE
QUIET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON LAKE ERIE THROUGH MONDAY WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT CAN SLIDE ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A VERY ACTIVE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS MONDAY
NIGHT. ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN SEVERE WINDS.
STRONGER SYNOPTIC WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
TUESDAY. W WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT,
TURNING NNW AT 15-25 KNOTS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE NNW
WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER, WINDS MAY REMAIN SUB 20 KNOTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AND BEACH HAZARD STATEMENTS FOR
RIP CURRENTS WILL BE NEEDED TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTHERLY BY
THURSDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...26
MARINE...GARUCKAS
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