947
FXUS61 KCLE 261806
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
206 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY,
BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF STORMS REMAINS LOW.
KEY MESSAGES
1) NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STORMS MAY REACH STRONG TO SEVERE LIMITS,
PARTICULARLY LATER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SPRAWLED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CONUS WITH DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN
CONUS WILL USHER IN A PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH MID-WEEK.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A SERIES OF "RIDGE RIDERS",
SHORTWAVES ALOFT CRESTING OVER THE RIDGE, TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO
THE REGION. THERE WILL BE NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, SOME STRONG TO SEVERE, BEGINNING LATER TODAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN
A WIDE RANGE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS.
FOR TODAY, SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP SOUTH
OF THE LAKE ERIE LAKESHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE MAY BE
AN ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IF WE ARE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE
ENOUGH GIVEN ROBUST DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40 KNOTS. DURING THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WE WILL BE MONITORING THE
PROGRESSION OF AN MCS DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN AND
LOWER MICHIGAN TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS MCS
WILL BE FOLLOWING AN INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND MAY JUST CLIP OUR
LOCAL FORECAST AREA TO THE WEST. FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE AND UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS
WITH FORECAST UPDATES LIKELY NEEDED FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE WEATHER TODAY THROUGH OVERNIGHT REMAINS
LOW. THE SPC HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR
SEVERE WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IN STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS INCREASES ON MONDAY AS A
SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT ENTER THE REGION AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. MUCH OF THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY WILL HEAVILY
DEPEND ON THE OUTCOME OF THE MCS TRACKING IN THE VICINITY OF THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. UPSTREAM STORM DEVELOPMENT
LOOKS MOST PROBABLE ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THESE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONGEAL INTO AN MCS AND SINK SOUTH TOWARDS NORTHERN
INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO BY MONDAY EVENING. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT IN THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST REGION MONDAY EVENING. THE SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE
ENTIRE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH
A CORRIDOR OF HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS EXTENDING
ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY WHILE THE
SURFACE LOW SLOWLY EXITS THE THE EAST. WE'LL BEGIN TO DRY OUT
BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY ENTERS FROM THE WEST.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA ON WEDNESDAY IN LINGERING TROUGHING OVER
THE LAKE.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SOME MVFR BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS HAVE MOVED INTO THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT IS TRYING TO SLOWLY
NUDGE EASTWARD. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD THIN WITH EASTWARD EXTENT
THIS AFTERNOON, SO HAVE MAINLY VFR PREVAILING. CONFIDENCE FOR
ALL TERMINALS BEGINS TO DECREASE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY.
THAT WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BISECT THE AREA FROM N TO S
TONIGHT AND MONDAY, AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DROP N TO S NEAR THE BOUNDARY AT TIMES. VERY HARD TO TIME AND
PINPOINT THE LOCATIONS OF ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT
INTRODUCED SOME VCSH AND VCTS AT KCLE AND KERI SINCE HI-RES
MODEL GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO KEY IN ON POSSIBLE ACTIVITY NEAR
KERI LATE MONDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND NEAR KCLE LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AFTER THE TAF PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND STRONG COLD FRONT CROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
W TO NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 5-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BEFORE TURNING LIGHT S TO SW TONIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN MAINLY W
AGAIN MONDAY MORNING AND INCREASE TO 5-10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE WITH PERIODIC SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY.
MARINE
MAINLY LIGHT WINDS AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE ON LAKE ERIE THROUGH
MONDAY, EXCEPT FOR LOCALLY HIGHER IN AND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DROP ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT IS LOW, BUT CONFIDENCE AND
POTENTIAL IS HIGHER MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT AS ONE OR
TWO CLUSTERS MAY DROP ACROSS THE LAKE.
OTHERWISE, W WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT AS
A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES LAKE ERIE, WITH WINDS BECOMING NNW
AND INCREASING TO 15-25 KNOTS TUESDAY. NNW WINDS WILL CONTINUE
AT 15-25 KNOTS AT TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY, SO SMALL CRAFT
HEADLINES AND BEACH HAZARD STATEMENTS FOR RIP CURRENTS ARE
LIKELY TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NNW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TO 5-10 KNOTS BY EARLY THURSDAY, BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...GARUCKAS
MARINE...GARUCKAS
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