124
FXUS61 KCLE 261842
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
242 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
REMAINS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY EVENING WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
IN COVERAGE AND TIMING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE TODAY WITH SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT AND LATE MONDAY EVENING. AFTERWARDS,
PERIODIC SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS NE OH AND NW PA INTO WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS CONTINUES TO BUILD AS
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. FIRSTLY, THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING, THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BE MINIMAL. LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING, THE FIRST OF THE SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE JUST
WEST OF THE REGION AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE.
CURRENT GUIDANCE HAS AN MCS TRACKING ALONG A THERMAL GRADIENT
THAT IS SITUATED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS INDIANA. RECENT
TRENDS HAVE THIS FEATURE NOT IMPACTING NORTHWESTERN OHIO UNTIL
MONDAY MORNING, IF THE PRECIPITATION DOES REACH THIS FAR EAST.
ANY STORMS THAT DO REACH THE AREA HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE WINDS, AND AS A RESULT, MUCH OF THE REGION IS UNDER A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON SPC'S DAY
1 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK.
THERE WILL BE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION INTO THE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY
BEFORE THE SECOND SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE, AND THERMAL GRADIENT WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST A LITTLE
MORE AS WELL. OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW, BULK SHEAR VECTORS WILL
BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT 40-50 KNOTS THAT WILL SUPPORT STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY EVENING. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES LATE
MONDAY NIGHT, STORMS WILL DEVELOP INTO A MORE LINEAR MODE. DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT THROUGHOUT THE EVENT, ESPECIALLY WITH
THE LINEAR MODE, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT ANY LARGE HAIL GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IN ANY CELLS
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE LINE. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY GIVEN
HOW THE 12Z MODELS HAVE HANDLED THIS FEATURE, WITH THE HRRR KEEPING
IT WELL TO THE WEST AND THE NAM NEST DEVELOPING IT ACROSS CENTRAL
MICHIGAN AND MOVING INTO NORTHERN OHIO. IN ADDITION, HOW LONG
PRECIPITATION LINGERS THROUGH THE MORNING AND COVERAGE OF ANY LATE
EVENING STORMS MAY INHIBIT STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH THE FRONT. HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE CURRENTLY IS IN NORTHWESTERN OHIO TO CLEVELAND, SOUTH
THROUGH THE MANSFIELD AREA FOR DAMAGING WIND IMPACTS. SPC
CURRENTLY HAS THE ENTIRE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF
5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE MAIN DRIVER BEING THE DAMAGING
WIND THREAT.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY MORNING, A SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE REGION WITH STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW
EXPECTED. RESIDUAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED, PRIMARILY ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA THAT WILL AID IN
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS DEVELOPING. PERIODIC SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY WHEN DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST WITH HIGH PRESSURE.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SOME MVFR BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS HAVE MOVED INTO THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT IS TRYING TO SLOWLY
NUDGE EASTWARD. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD THIN WITH EASTWARD EXTENT
THIS AFTERNOON, SO HAVE MAINLY VFR PREVAILING. CONFIDENCE FOR
ALL TERMINALS BEGINS TO DECREASE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY.
THAT WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BISECT THE AREA FROM N TO S
TONIGHT AND MONDAY, AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DROP N TO S NEAR THE BOUNDARY AT TIMES. VERY HARD TO TIME AND
PINPOINT THE LOCATIONS OF ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT
INTRODUCED SOME VCSH AND VCTS AT KCLE AND KERI SINCE HI-RES
MODEL GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO KEY IN ON POSSIBLE ACTIVITY NEAR
KERI LATE MONDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND NEAR KCLE LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AFTER THE TAF PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND STRONG COLD FRONT CROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
W TO NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 5-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BEFORE TURNING LIGHT S TO SW TONIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN MAINLY W
AGAIN MONDAY MORNING AND INCREASE TO 5-10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE WITH PERIODIC SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY.
MARINE
MAINLY LIGHT WINDS AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE ON LAKE ERIE THROUGH
MONDAY, EXCEPT FOR LOCALLY HIGHER IN AND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DROP ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT IS LOW, BUT CONFIDENCE AND
POTENTIAL IS HIGHER MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT AS ONE OR
TWO CLUSTERS MAY DROP ACROSS THE LAKE.
OTHERWISE, W WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT AS
A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES LAKE ERIE, WITH WINDS BECOMING NNW
AND INCREASING TO 15-25 KNOTS TUESDAY. NNW WINDS WILL CONTINUE
AT 15-25 KNOTS AT TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY, SO SMALL CRAFT
HEADLINES AND BEACH HAZARD STATEMENTS FOR RIP CURRENTS ARE
LIKELY TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NNW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TO 5-10 KNOTS BY EARLY THURSDAY, BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION...GARUCKAS
MARINE...GARUCKAS
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