332
FXUS61 KCLE 270549
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
149 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MAHONING VALLEY THIS EVENING. INCREASED THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS THROUGH SUNSET IN THIS AREA. NO SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE TODAY WITH SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT AND LATE MONDAY EVENING. AFTERWARDS,
PERIODIC SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS NE OH AND NW PA INTO WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS CONTINUES TO BUILD AS
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. FIRSTLY, THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING, THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BE MINIMAL. LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING, THE FIRST OF THE SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE JUST
WEST OF THE REGION AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE.
CURRENT GUIDANCE HAS AN MCS TRACKING ALONG A THERMAL GRADIENT
THAT IS SITUATED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS INDIANA. RECENT
TRENDS HAVE THIS FEATURE NOT IMPACTING NORTHWESTERN OHIO UNTIL
MONDAY MORNING, IF THE PRECIPITATION DOES REACH THIS FAR EAST.
ANY STORMS THAT DO REACH THE AREA HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE WINDS, AND AS A RESULT, MUCH OF THE REGION IS UNDER A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON SPC'S DAY
1 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK.
THERE WILL BE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION INTO THE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY
BEFORE THE SECOND SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE, AND THERMAL GRADIENT WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST A LITTLE
MORE AS WELL. OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW, BULK SHEAR VECTORS WILL
BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT 40-50 KNOTS THAT WILL SUPPORT STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY EVENING. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES LATE
MONDAY NIGHT, STORMS WILL DEVELOP INTO A MORE LINEAR MODE. DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT THROUGHOUT THE EVENT, ESPECIALLY WITH
THE LINEAR MODE, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT ANY LARGE HAIL GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IN ANY CELLS
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE LINE. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY GIVEN
HOW THE 12Z MODELS HAVE HANDLED THIS FEATURE, WITH THE HRRR KEEPING
IT WELL TO THE WEST AND THE NAM NEST DEVELOPING IT ACROSS CENTRAL
MICHIGAN AND MOVING INTO NORTHERN OHIO. IN ADDITION, HOW LONG
PRECIPITATION LINGERS THROUGH THE MORNING AND COVERAGE OF ANY LATE
EVENING STORMS MAY INHIBIT STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH THE FRONT. HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE CURRENTLY IS IN NORTHWESTERN OHIO TO CLEVELAND, SOUTH
THROUGH THE MANSFIELD AREA FOR DAMAGING WIND IMPACTS. SPC
CURRENTLY HAS THE ENTIRE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF
5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE MAIN DRIVER BEING THE DAMAGING
WIND THREAT.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY MORNING, A SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE REGION WITH STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW
EXPECTED. RESIDUAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED, PRIMARILY ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA THAT WILL AID IN
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS DEVELOPING. PERIODIC SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY WHEN DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST WITH HIGH PRESSURE.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT MOST
TERMINALS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME PATCHY FOG REMAINS
POSSIBLE AT INLAND TERMINALS FROM ROUGHLY 08Z/MON TO 12Z/MON.
THERE WILL MULTIPLE PERIODS WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER TERMINALS.
THE FIRST ROUND COMES NEAR DAYBREAK ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO
TERMINALS AS HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A DECAYING MCS
SINKING SOUTH ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN
INDIANA/NORTHWEST OHIO NEAR 11Z/MON. HAVE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
IN TS AT KTOL WITH THIS INITIAL DECAYING MCS. HOWEVER, HAVE PUT
TEMPO GROUPS BETWEEN 12Z/MON TO 15Z/MON AT KTOL/KFDY FOR TSRA
IMPACTS. THERE'S A NON- ZERO CHANCE THAT SOME LINGERING
THUNDERSTORMS REACH AS FAR EAST AS KCLE EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT
OPTED FOR A PREVAILING VCTS AS CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THE FURTHER
EAST YOU GO.
THERE REMAINS A LARGE MODEL SPREAD BETWEEN HI-RES MEMBERS FOR
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION DURING THE DAY TODAY AND AGAIN THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. ONE POSSIBLE OUTCOME IS ANOTHER DECAYING MCS
DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM WISCONSIN TOWARDS WESTERN OHIO LATER THIS
EVENING. GIVEN CONFIDENCE LEVELS, HAVE PROB30 THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING FOR THIS ROUND.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AT
8-12 KNOTS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS POSSIBLE AT WESTERN TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE WITH PERIODIC SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY.
MARINE
LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-12 KNOTS THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHERLY AND GRADUALLY INCREASE TO
15-20 KNOTS THIS EVENING BEFORE EVENTUALLY TURNING NORTHERLY AT
20-25 KNOTS BY TUESDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GIVEN ELEVATED ONSHORE FLOW WAVE HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 3-6 FEET BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WILL
LIKELY NEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AND BEACH HAZARD STATEMENTS
FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
ALLOWING FOR NORTHERLY WINDS 15-25 KNOTS TO DIMINISH TO 10-15
KNOTS BY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
ON FRIDAY.
A SERIES OF WEAKENING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES MOVING IN THE
VICINITY OF LAKE ERIE REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS AND
WAVES MAY BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES MOVE
OVER THE LAKE.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...04/23
AVIATION...13
MARINE...13
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