465
FXUS61 KCLE 271732
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
132 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE EVOLUTION OF MCS DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AND HOW IT WILL TRANSLATE
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND LATER TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN
FLUX.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ROUNDS OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT, HINGING ON THE
INITIAL SYSTEMS THIS MORNING.
2) COOLER AIRMASS AND HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
ALL EYES THIS MORNING WILL BE ON THE DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES CURRENTLY IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. EVOLUTION HAS BEEN SLOW THUS FAR AND IR IMAGERY SHOWING
CLOUD TOP COOLING IS MINIMAL AT THIS POINT ALTHOUGH GROWING IN SIZE
OVER WHITEFISH BAY, AND EXPECT ENHANCEMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
BULK SHEAR VECTORS WILL TAKE THESE DEVELOPING COMPLEXES
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES, WHERE CAMS/RAPID UPDATE
MODELS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME PROVIDING ANY CONSISTENCY TO THEIR
SOLUTIONS ON WHERE MCSS WILL GO AND IF/WHEN THEY DECAY. AS THEY MOVE
TOWARDS THE CLEVELAND CWA, PLENTY OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO WORK
WITH, BUT ATMOSPHERIC LAYER ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER NEEDS SOME WORK
IN TERMS OF RH AS IT IS PRETTY DRY FOR THE TIME BEING. OUTSIDE OF
THE DRIER LAYER OF AIR ALOFT, SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S AND
USABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXIST. HOWEVER, THE TIMING OF THE MCS
WORKS AGAINST IT FOR OUR AREA AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS
DAWN, AND WILL LIKELY SUFFER DECAY AS CLOUD TOPS ARE FORCED TO WARM
WITH MINIMAL LOW LEVEL JET ENERGY IN PLACE. THAT SAID, THERE IS AN
EXPECTATION OF A FEW LINGERING CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS OR SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER THIS MORNING FROM THE LAKE SUPERIOR MCS. FURTHER
WEST, THE MINNESOTA SYSTEM IS ONE THAT HI RES MODELS AND CAMS ARE
SUGGESTING WILL SURVIVE INTO THE DAYTIME, AND COULD AFFECT OUR CWA
LATER TODAY. ULTIMATELY, THE FORECAST CHALLENGE HERE IS THAT THE
REST OF THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT IS LIKELY GOING TO RELY ON
WHAT HAPPENS WITH THESE INITIAL SYSTEMS, HOW LONG IT TAKES OR IF THE
ATMOSPHERE NEEDS TO RECOVER FROM THEM, IF THERE ARE LINGERING WAKE
MCVS, ETC. EXPECT AN EVOLVING FORECAST, BUT KNOW THAT THE CHANCES
FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL EXIST FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH A WHOLESALE
AIRMASS CHANGE WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE. ADDITIONAL UPPER
TROUGH AXES WILL SWING THROUGH THE CWA NORTH TO SOUTH, AND THE
ONSHORE FLOW COUPLED WITH THIS COULD GENERATE SHOWERS WITH SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT AS THE 850MB TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
THROUGH THURSDAY.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
TWO UPSTREAM AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE BEING MONITORED FOR TAF
IMPACTS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FIRST
IS CURRENTLY NEAR CHICAGO AND THE SECOND IS OVER LAKE HURON. IF
THESE AREAS OF CONVECTION MAINTAIN THEIR CURRENT
TRAJECTORIES/STRENGTH, THEY WILL LIKELY MAKE IT INTO THE AREA BY
AROUND 21-22Z. OVERALL, CONFIDENCE IN RAIN OCCURRING AT ANY
GIVEN TAF SITE IS HIGH THROUGH THIS EVENING, BUT COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW SO HAVE MAINTAINED PREVAILING SHOWERS WITH
VCTS/PROB30 GROUPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. AMENDMENTS WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED AS THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION BECOMES CLOSER. EITHER WAY,
ANY STORMS THAT MOVE OVER TERMINALS THIS EVENING COULD PRODUCE
NON-VFR CONDITIONS AND ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
RAIN CHANCES DECREASING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS
WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH CONDITIONS
LIKELY IMPROVING FROM THE WEST TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 6 TO 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING NORTHWEST AT 8 TO
14 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS AT AROUND 12Z TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR MAY PERSIST IN LOWER CEILINGS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY, PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY.
MARINE
LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-12 KNOTS THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHERLY AND GRADUALLY INCREASE TO
15-20 KNOTS THIS EVENING BEFORE EVENTUALLY TURNING NORTHERLY AT
20-25 KNOTS BY TUESDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GIVEN ELEVATED ONSHORE FLOW WAVE HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 3-6 FEET BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WILL
LIKELY NEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AND BEACH HAZARD STATEMENTS
FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
ALLOWING FOR NORTHERLY WINDS 15-25 KNOTS TO DIMINISH TO 10-15
KNOTS BY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
ON FRIDAY.
A SERIES OF WEAKENING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES MOVING IN THE
VICINITY OF LAKE ERIE REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS AND
WAVES MAY BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES MOVE
OVER THE LAKE.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...15
MARINE...13
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