312
FXUS61 KCLE 280543
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
143 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE MAHONING
VALLEY THIS EVENING, REMAINING SUB-SEVERE WITH ISOLATED WIND
GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KNOTS POSSIBLE AND SMALL HAIL. THE SEVERE
THREAT ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO THIS EVENING HAS SIGNIFICANTLY
DECREASED WITH SPC NOW HIGHLIGHTING THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK.
ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT SOME
OF THOSE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS THE
PRIMARY CONCERN, BUT GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE TIMING CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW ON THE INTENSITY OF THAT CONVECTION. OVERALL, THE
AREA SHOULD SEE A LULL IN ANY CONVECTION/PRECIPITATION OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRST MOVE INTO THE AREA BETWEEN 5
AND 8 PM. A FEW COULD BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN
THE MAIN HAZARDS, BUT THE STORMS WITH THE GREATEST SEVERITY AND
ORGANIZATION SHOULD STAY WEST OF THE AREA.
2) ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOWER SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT.
3) A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN NE OHIO AND NW PA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, BUT OTHERWISE DRIER, MUCH COOLER, AND LESS HUMID THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE VERY CHALLENGING AND
LOW CONFIDENCE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT IN TERMS OF HOW UPSTREAM
CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE AND IMPACT OUR REGION. TWO COMPLEXES OF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING. THE LARGEST AND MOST
ORGANIZED OF THE TWO COMPLEXES (MCS'S) IS CURRENTLY PROPAGATING
S TO SE ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN, LAKE MICHIGAN, WESTERN LOWER
MICHIGAN, NORTHERN ILLINOIS, AND NW INDIANA. THIS MCS HAS
PRODUCED WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE AND MULTIPLE
TORNADOES BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE A HARD RIGHT TURN TO THE S
AS IT FOLLOWS THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE THERMAL RIDGE, WHERE
A VERY IMPRESSIVE THETA E/INSTABILITY GRADIENT IS DRAPED FROM N
TO S ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW THIS
MCS TO LARGELY MISS OUR AREA TO THE WEST THIS EVENING, BUT THE
EASTERN EDGE OF IT MAY CLIP THE I-75 CORRIDOR IN THE ROUGHLY
21-00Z (5 TO 8 PM) TIMEFRAME WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL.
THE SECOND AND SMALLER OF THE TWO MCS'S IS LOCATED
OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE. THIS MCS
IS BEING MORE DIRECTLY FORCED BY THE STRONG MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT IS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS SHORTWAVE DIVES THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING, THE LEFT EXIT OF A 115-120
KNOT H3 JET STREAK WILL GENERATE STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING TO
SUSTAIN THIS MCS, AS WELL AS STRENGTHEN A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL
MOVE SE INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO TONIGHT. DESPITE LOWER
INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA (2000 MLCAPE)
COMPARED TO THE EXTREME INSTABILITY FEEDING THE LARGER LAKE
MICHIGAN MCS, THE COMBINATION OF THE JET SUPPORT AND SURFACE LOW
SHOULD MAINTAIN THIS LAKE HURON CONVECTION INTO OUR AREA.
CURRENT TRAJECTORIES TIME THIS MCS TO REACH NE OHIO AND NW PA IN
THE 22 TO 23Z (6 TO 7 PM) TIMEFRAME. THE AFOREMENTIONED
SUFFICIENT MLCAPE COMBINED WITH 40-50 KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE DEEP
LAYER BULK SHEAR ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE CONVECTION WILL
SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED SEVERE WINDS, ESPECIALLY AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM LATE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH DCAPE
INCREASING TO OVER 1000 J/KG. EVEN IN THE ABSENCE OF SEVERE
WEATHER, MOST AREAS WILL SEE SOME RAIN AND THUNDER WITH THIS
ACTIVITY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AFTER A LULL EARLY TONIGHT, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS THE
MID/UPPER JET SUPPORT MOVES OVERHEAD TIED TO THE SHORTWAVE
CROSSING THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE CONVECTION THIS EVENING
SHOULD OVERTURN THE ATMOSPHERE AND EFFECTIVELY USE MUCH OF THE
INSTABILITY, BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED LEFT EXIT REGION DYNAMICS
WILL ENCOURAGE STRONG FORCING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO GET THE
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION GOING OVERNIGHT. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD
GENERALLY NOT BE SEVERE GIVEN THE LOWER INSTABILITY, BUT GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. MAINTAINED
HIGH POPS OVERNIGHT UNTIL THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THE MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED WITH THE
SURFACE LOW AND CLOSE OFF OVER UPSTATE NEW YORK BY TUESDAY
EVENING. THIS ALONG WITH THE PARENT LONGWAVE MID/UPPER TROUGH
BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO EVOLVE INTO A COASTAL LOW
NEAR LONG ISLAND. THE RESULT FOR NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA WILL
BE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ADVECTION TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. A SECONDARY FRONT OR SURFACE TROUGH DROPPING
THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH THE
DEEPENING TROUGH ALOFT WILL GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS, MAINLY
IN INTERIOR NE OHIO AND NW PA, SO INCREASED POPS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, WRAPAROUND MOISTURE IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE WARM LAKES WILL LEAD
TO PERIODIC LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS OVER FAR NE OHIO AND NW PA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY AND
PERSISTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, SUPPORTING PLEASANTLY COOL
AND DRY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO
THE 50S BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS ALLOWING THE AIR
CONDITIONERS TO GET A BREAK BEFORE GRADUAL WARMING OVER THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AN AREA OF STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY PUSHING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN INDIANA AND
NORTHWEST OHIO. EXPECT REDUCED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS THIS
AREA OF CONVECTION MOVES OVER TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
HAVE TIMED OUT TEMPO GROUPS AT ALL TERMINALS IN THE TIMEFRAME
WHERE THERE REMAINS HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN TSRA IMPACTS TO TAF
SITES (ROUGHLY BETWEEN ~06Z/TUE AND ~10Z/TUE). BEHIND THIS AREA
OF CONVECTION EXPECT WIDESPREAD CEILING REDUCTIONS TO LOW-END
MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR THROUGH LATE MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON WITH WESTERN TERMINALS
IMPROVING TO VFR BY 18Z/TUE. EXPECT LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS
ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA TERMINALS AS A TROUGH
LINGERS ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND WILL GIVE WAY TO LAKE-INDUCED
CLOUD COVER/RAIN SHOWERS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. BEHIND
THE CONVECTION AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT WINDS WILL TURN
NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10-13 KNOTS WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS
20-25 KNOTS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CEILINGS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.
NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY.
MARINE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE
THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE, ELEVATED SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS
15-20 KNOTS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AT 15-25 KNOTS BY DAYBREAK AS
A COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASINS TO
BUILD TO 4-7 FEET. HIGHEST WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE IN THE
CENTRAL BASIN. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AND BEACH HAZARDS
STATEMENTS REMAIN IN EFFECT TO HIGHLIGHT THE TIMEFRAME OF
HIGHEST RISK TO SMALL CRAFT AND BEACH GOERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING.
NORTHWEST WINDS DECREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW
RETURNS FRIDAY WITH LARGELY OFFSHORE LIGHT WINDS ANTICIPATED
INTO THE WEEKEND.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR OHZ009>012-089.
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR PAZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR LEZ144>148.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ149.
DISCUSSION...04/GARUCKAS
AVIATION...13
MARINE...13
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