979
FXUS61 KCLE 281959
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
359 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COOLER AND LESS HUMID THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH OCCASIONAL WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN FAR NE OHIO AND NW PA THROUGH TONIGHT.
2) TURNING WARMER AND MORE HUMID THIS WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT
WEEK WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT CONFIDENCE IN
COVERAGE IS LOW.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AFTERNOON SATELLITE AND WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW THE
MID/UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING AND BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST CONUS. CURRENT RAP ANALYSIS PLACES THE
SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN NEW YORK, WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE U.S. 30 CORRIDOR. A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DRIVEN BY WEAK INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS EXITING A MAHONING TO KNOX COUNTY LINE. EXPECT MOST
OF THE SHOWERS TO BE DONE BY THE TIME THE FRONT EXITS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT LINGERED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING AND PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AIR ALOFT
THAT COULD TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO. DEW POINTS REMAIN
ELEVATED THIS AFTERNOON, BUT A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY
CROSSING THE LAKE WILL START TO BRING IN THE TRUE AIRMASS CHANGE
THIS EVENING.
FOR TONIGHT, MOST AREAS WILL STAY DRY AS THE DRIER AIRMASS CONTINUES
TO ADVECT IN, BUT THE SURFACE LOW WILL BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED
BENEATH THE CLOSING OFF MID-LEVEL LOW OVER UPSTATE NEW YORK. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A DEEPENING CYCLONIC FLOW COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN
WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE SCATTERED LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS IN FAR NE
OHIO AND NW PA. WRAPAROUND MOISTURE SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF SOME
SHOWERS, BUT RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LAKE TO 850 MB DELTA T'S
ONLY AVERAGING ABOUT 10 C ALONG WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE PROFILES
CONFINED BELOW 800 MB. AN INVERSION WILL ALSO BE PRESENT AROUND 800
MB, SO THIS SHALLOW MOISTURE AND LOW INVERSION ENVIRONMENT WILL KEEP
THE RAIN SHOWERS LIGHT AND DISORGANIZED. WITH THIS ALL BEING SAID,
LIMITED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN FAR NE OHIO AND NW PA TONIGHT.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE DRIER AIR SHOULD WIN OUT AND ALLOW ANY LAKE
SHOWERS TO END AS THE CLOSED LOW GRADUALLY DRIFTS FARTHER EAST AND
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS HIGH
WILL SETTLE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY ALLOWING THE PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOWS IN THE MID 50S AWAY FROM
THE LAKE BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS WILL GIVE THE AIR
CONDITIONERS A NICE BREAK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE CANADIAN HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THIS WEEKEND ALLOWING RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP AS THE
OLD CLOSED LOW OVER THE NE U.S WEAKENS AND LIFTS OUT. AT THE SAME
TIME, ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP
OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST SATURDAY AND EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS BY SUNDAY. DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS STRUGGLING WITH THE EXACT EVOLUTION AND
ULTIMATE TRACK OF THIS CLOSED LOW AND HOW LONG IT WILL LINGER,
WHICH IS COMMON IN THESE SET UPS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN A
RETURN TO WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS GIVEN THE ENHANCED
WARM AIR ADVECTION BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE EAST AND CLOSED LOW
DIVING TO THE WEST, BUT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IN THIS AIRMASS
IS MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCE. KEPT NBM CHANCE POPS SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AT THIS TIME, WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE DURING DAYTIME
HEATING. SOME AREAS THAT HAVE MISSED OUT ON RAIN THE PAST COUPLE
OF WEEKS MAY SEE SOME WITH THE SCATTERED CONVECTION BETWEEN
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WE TURN THE CALENDAR TO
AUGUST.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SCT/BKN CUMULUS FIELD REMAINS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
CEILINGS GENERALLY IN THE 2,500-5,000 FT RANGE. SKIES SHOULD
TEND TO BECOME FEW/SCT THROUGH THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY WEST OF
I-77. SOME LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED CLOUDS WILL REDEVELOP THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT, WITH ADDITIONAL MVFR CLOUDS EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF
NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA LATE TONIGHT. MVFR
CLOUDS SHOULD MOSTLY CLEAR UP BY DAYBREAK WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH FEW/SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10-13 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TOMORROW, WITH LIGHT WINDS OF
AROUND 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
MARINE
NORTHERLY AT 15-25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR WAVE
HEIGHTS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASINS TO BUILD TO 4-7 FEET.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AND BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENTS REMAIN IN
EFFECT TO HIGHLIGHT THE TIMEFRAME OF HIGHEST RISK TO SMALL CRAFT
AND BEACH GOERS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LIGHT AND CALM WINDS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
CENTERED OVERHEAD, GENERALLY BECOMING EASTERLY OVER THE WEEKEND
AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
OHZ009>012-089.
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR PAZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ144>148.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ149.
DISCUSSION...GARUCKAS
AVIATION...SAUNDERS
MARINE...SAUNDERS
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