213
FXUS61 KCLE 290531
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
131 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COOLER AND LESS HUMID THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH OCCASIONAL WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN FAR NE OHIO AND NW PA THROUGH TONIGHT.
2) TURNING WARMER AND MORE HUMID THIS WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT
WEEK WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT CONFIDENCE IN
COVERAGE IS LOW.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AFTERNOON SATELLITE AND WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW THE
MID/UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING AND BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST CONUS. CURRENT RAP ANALYSIS PLACES THE
SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN NEW YORK, WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE U.S. 30 CORRIDOR. A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DRIVEN BY WEAK INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS EXITING A MAHONING TO KNOX COUNTY LINE. EXPECT MOST
OF THE SHOWERS TO BE DONE BY THE TIME THE FRONT EXITS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT LINGERED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING AND PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AIR ALOFT
THAT COULD TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO. DEW POINTS REMAIN
ELEVATED THIS AFTERNOON, BUT A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY
CROSSING THE LAKE WILL START TO BRING IN THE TRUE AIRMASS CHANGE
THIS EVENING.
FOR TONIGHT, MOST AREAS WILL STAY DRY AS THE DRIER AIRMASS CONTINUES
TO ADVECT IN, BUT THE SURFACE LOW WILL BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED
BENEATH THE CLOSING OFF MID-LEVEL LOW OVER UPSTATE NEW YORK. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A DEEPENING CYCLONIC FLOW COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN
WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE SCATTERED LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS IN FAR NE
OHIO AND NW PA. WRAPAROUND MOISTURE SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF SOME
SHOWERS, BUT RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LAKE TO 850 MB DELTA T'S
ONLY AVERAGING ABOUT 10 C ALONG WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE PROFILES
CONFINED BELOW 800 MB. AN INVERSION WILL ALSO BE PRESENT AROUND 800
MB, SO THIS SHALLOW MOISTURE AND LOW INVERSION ENVIRONMENT WILL KEEP
THE RAIN SHOWERS LIGHT AND DISORGANIZED. WITH THIS ALL BEING SAID,
LIMITED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN FAR NE OHIO AND NW PA TONIGHT.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE DRIER AIR SHOULD WIN OUT AND ALLOW ANY LAKE
SHOWERS TO END AS THE CLOSED LOW GRADUALLY DRIFTS FARTHER EAST AND
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS HIGH
WILL SETTLE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY ALLOWING THE PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOWS IN THE MID 50S AWAY FROM
THE LAKE BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS WILL GIVE THE AIR
CONDITIONERS A NICE BREAK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE CANADIAN HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THIS WEEKEND ALLOWING RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP AS THE
OLD CLOSED LOW OVER THE NE U.S WEAKENS AND LIFTS OUT. AT THE SAME
TIME, ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP
OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST SATURDAY AND EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS BY SUNDAY. DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS STRUGGLING WITH THE EXACT EVOLUTION AND
ULTIMATE TRACK OF THIS CLOSED LOW AND HOW LONG IT WILL LINGER,
WHICH IS COMMON IN THESE SET UPS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN A
RETURN TO WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS GIVEN THE ENHANCED
WARM AIR ADVECTION BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE EAST AND CLOSED LOW
DIVING TO THE WEST, BUT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IN THIS AIRMASS
IS MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCE. KEPT NBM CHANCE POPS SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AT THIS TIME, WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE DURING DAYTIME
HEATING. SOME AREAS THAT HAVE MISSED OUT ON RAIN THE PAST COUPLE
OF WEEKS MAY SEE SOME WITH THE SCATTERED CONVECTION BETWEEN
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WE TURN THE CALENDAR TO
AUGUST.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT TERMINALS
DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE ERIE IN LAKE ENHANCED CLOUD COVER. ANY MVFR
CEILINGS AT THESE TERMINALS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR (3.5-5 KFT)
THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD SKC IS ANTICIPATED BY THIS AFTERNOON
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
A FEW LINGERING GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE LAKESHORE
TONIGHT BUT EXPECT WINDS TO LARGELY DIMINISH TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS
THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
GUSTING TO 20-25 KNOTS IS EXPECTED AGAIN DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
MARINE
ELEVATED NORTHERLY WINDS 15-25 KNOTS CONTINUE ACROSS THE LAKE
THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. GIVEN THE
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW, WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
BASINS OF 4-7 FEET REMAIN. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND BEACH HAZARD
STATEMENT REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. CONDITIONS
WILL BE HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT IN ADDITION TO THE HIGH RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS. SWIMMING IS DISCOURAGED!
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OVERHEAD,
WINDS WILL DECREASE AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY FRIDAY.
WINDS TURN EASTERLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OHZ009>012-
089.
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR PAZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ144>148.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ149.
DISCUSSION...GARUCKAS
AVIATION...13
MARINE...13
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