062
FXUS61 KCLE 290615
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
215 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES THIS MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
2) UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE WEEKEND BRINGING A
RETURN TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE. THE
UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO BRING LAKE
ENHANCED CLOUD COVER ASHORE IN BREEZY NORTHERLY FLOW, AND SHOULD END
AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING EXCEPT FOR NW PA WHERE SOME CLOUD COVER COULD
HANG ON INTO THE AFTERNOON AIDED BY MIXING. EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS TODAY OTHERWISE IN A COOLER AND SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINT
AIRMASS. THIS AIRMASS WILL MODIFY EACH DAY WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S BY FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, THURSDAY
WILL BE SUNNY ONCE AGAIN WHILE FRIDAY HAS INCREASING CIRRUS
CLOUD COVER FROM THE WEST.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES FROM
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE GENERATING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE
SURFACE LOW WILL SET UP OVER THE CWA FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY,
BRINGING BACK HIGHER DEWPOINTS, A RETURN OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE,
AND PATCHY, WEAK INSTABILITY IN A PATTERN THAT WILL NOT PROGRESS
MUCH DURING THAT PERIOD. IN THE END, EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR THE WEEKEND AND CHANCE POPS
WITH SOME UNCERTAINTIES IN THE COVERAGE AND TIMING.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT TERMINALS
DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE ERIE IN LAKE ENHANCED CLOUD COVER. ANY MVFR
CEILINGS AT THESE TERMINALS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR (3.5-5 KFT)
THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD SKC IS ANTICIPATED BY THIS AFTERNOON
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
A FEW LINGERING GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE LAKESHORE
TONIGHT BUT EXPECT WINDS TO LARGELY DIMINISH TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS
THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
GUSTING TO 20-25 KNOTS IS EXPECTED AGAIN DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
MARINE
ELEVATED NORTHERLY WINDS 15-25 KNOTS CONTINUE ACROSS THE LAKE
THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. GIVEN THE
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW, WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
BASINS OF 4-7 FEET REMAIN. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND BEACH HAZARD
STATEMENT REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. CONDITIONS
WILL BE HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT IN ADDITION TO THE HIGH RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS. SWIMMING IS DISCOURAGED!
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OVERHEAD,
WINDS WILL DECREASE AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY FRIDAY.
WINDS TURN EASTERLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OHZ009>012-
089.
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR PAZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ144>148.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ149.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...13
MARINE...13
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