474
FXUS61 KCLE 291651
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1251 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2026
..18Z TAF AVIATION FORECAST UPDATE
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES THIS MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
2) UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE WEEKEND BRINGING A
RETURN TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE. THE
UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO BRING LAKE
ENHANCED CLOUD COVER ASHORE IN BREEZY NORTHERLY FLOW, AND SHOULD END
AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING EXCEPT FOR NW PA WHERE SOME CLOUD COVER COULD
HANG ON INTO THE AFTERNOON AIDED BY MIXING. EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS TODAY OTHERWISE IN A COOLER AND SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINT
AIRMASS. THIS AIRMASS WILL MODIFY EACH DAY WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S BY FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, THURSDAY
WILL BE SUNNY ONCE AGAIN WHILE FRIDAY HAS INCREASING CIRRUS
CLOUD COVER FROM THE WEST.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES FROM
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE GENERATING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE
SURFACE LOW WILL SET UP OVER THE CWA FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY,
BRINGING BACK HIGHER DEWPOINTS, A RETURN OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE,
AND PATCHY, WEAK INSTABILITY IN A PATTERN THAT WILL NOT PROGRESS
MUCH DURING THAT PERIOD. IN THE END, EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR THE WEEKEND AND CHANCE POPS
WITH SOME UNCERTAINTIES IN THE COVERAGE AND TIMING.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THIS TAF
UPDATE. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CEILINGS AROUND 3500 TO 5000 FEET
WILL BE AROUND THIS AFTERNOON GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE
NORTH THIS AFTERNOON 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL RELAX THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FROM THE NORTH
AROUND 5 TO 7 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
MARINE
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED FROM THE NORTH 15-20 KNOTS THROUGH
TONIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASINS OF 4-7
FEET WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND
BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL BE HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT IN ADDITION TO THE
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS. SWIMMING IS DISCOURAGED! HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ON THURSDAY, WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST 5 TO 15 KNOTS ON THURSDAY AND WAVES 1
TO 3 FEET. BY FRIDAY, WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10
KNOTS AND WAVES 1 TO 2 FEET. WINDS TURN EASTERLY BY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OHZ009>012-
089.
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ144>148.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ149.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...77
MARINE...77
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