205
FXUS61 KCLE 300712
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
312 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) TRANQUIL AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
2) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH COOLER THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS UNDER BROAD NORTHERLY
FLOW. PATCHY FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS ALONG
AND EAST OF I-71.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PUSH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT
ACROSS MODELS ON THE PLACEMENT AND TRAJECTORY OF THE WEAK
SURFACE LOW AND CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY
DETERMINE COVERAGE AND TIMING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS,
PARTICULARLY ON SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY, THE UPPER TROUGH GLIDES
EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ALLOWING FOR RAIN CHANCES TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
GENERALLY ANTICIPATE COVERAGE TO REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
DURING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND. ANY
SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT OCCUR WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAIN AS PWAT VALUES RISE TO 1.75-2.00 INCHES SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A
GENERAL NORTHERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SKY
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE GENERALLY CLEAR BUT SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS
MAY DEVELOP IN NW OHIO.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE WITH PATCHY FOG IN EASTERN OHIO AND
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. NON-VFR
CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
MARINE
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED FROM THE NORTH 15-20 KNOTS THROUGH
TONIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASINS OF 4-7
FEET WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND
BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL BE HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT IN ADDITION TO THE
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS. SWIMMING IS DISCOURAGED! HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ON THURSDAY, WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST 5 TO 15 KNOTS ON THURSDAY AND WAVES 1
TO 3 FEET. BY FRIDAY, WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10
KNOTS AND WAVES 1 TO 2 FEET. WINDS TURN EASTERLY BY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
OHZ009>012-089.
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LEZ144>149.
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...SEFCOVIC
MARINE...77
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