091
FXUS61 KCLE 300818
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
418 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) TRANQUIL AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
2) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH COOLER THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS UNDER BROAD NORTHERLY
FLOW. PATCHY FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS ALONG
AND EAST OF I-71.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PUSH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT
ACROSS MODELS ON THE PLACEMENT AND TRAJECTORY OF THE WEAK
SURFACE LOW AND CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY
DETERMINE COVERAGE AND TIMING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS,
PARTICULARLY ON SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY, THE UPPER TROUGH GLIDES
EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ALLOWING FOR RAIN CHANCES TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
GENERALLY ANTICIPATE COVERAGE TO REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
DURING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND. ANY
SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT OCCUR WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAIN AS PWAT VALUES RISE TO 1.75-2.00 INCHES SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A
GENERAL NORTHERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SKY
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE GENERALLY CLEAR BUT SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS
MAY DEVELOP IN NW OHIO.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE WITH PATCHY FOG IN EASTERN OHIO AND
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. NON-VFR
CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
MARINE
WINDS OVER LAKE ERIE ARE DIMINISHING THIS MORNING WITH 10 TO 15
KTS IN THE CENTRAL BASIN AND WAVES FALLING UNDER 3 FT.
THEREFORE, ALL MARINE HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY AND LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY.
LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE LAKE TODAY AND WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST. FOR
THE WEEKEND, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
AND SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE LAKE ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION. EAST TO
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE FAVORED ON SATURDAY AND WAVES 1 TO 2 FT
WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE LAKE ERIE ISLANDS REGION. WINDS WILL
INCREASE A BIT FOR SUNDAY AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AND WAVES 1
TO 3 FT WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
BASINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND NORTHEAST FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE BASIN AND ALLOW
FOR WAVES 1 TO 3 FT TO REMAIN POSSIBLE. NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME, BUT SOME MODERATE SWIMMING RISK DAYS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...SEFCOVIC
MARINE...SEFCOVIC
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