486
FXUS61 KCLE 301751
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
151 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) TRANQUIL AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
2) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH COOLER THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS UNDER BROAD NORTHERLY
FLOW. PATCHY FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS ALONG
AND EAST OF I-71.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PUSH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT
ACROSS MODELS ON THE PLACEMENT AND TRAJECTORY OF THE WEAK
SURFACE LOW AND CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY
DETERMINE COVERAGE AND TIMING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS,
PARTICULARLY ON SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY, THE UPPER TROUGH GLIDES
EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ALLOWING FOR RAIN CHANCES TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
GENERALLY ANTICIPATE COVERAGE TO REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
DURING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND. ANY
SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT OCCUR WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAIN AS PWAT VALUES RISE TO 1.75-2.00 INCHES SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS TODAY AND UPPER-LEVEL
CIRRUS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. NORTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
MARINE
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON LAKE ERIE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PRODUCE EAST FLOW SATURDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, BECOMING NORTHERLY BY SUNDAY.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT LAKE ERIE AT TIMES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.
WIND SPEEDS ARE UNLIKELY TO EXCEED 20 KNOTS BUT THE LATEST NBM
IS FORECASTING A MEANINGFUL CHANCE OF WAVES IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE
(20-40% CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE) SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT, PARTICULARLY FOR THE CENTRAL BASIN OF LAKE ERIE. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO SWIMMERS
AND SMALL CRAFT ON LAKE ERIE DURING THIS PERIOD.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...SAUNDERS
MARINE...SAUNDERS
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