605
FXUS61 KCLE 310520
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
120 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS INLAND NORTHEAST
AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE RAINFALL FORECAST
THIS WEEKEND HAS TRENDED UP SOMEWHAT, MAINLY LATE SATURDAY INTO
EARLY SUNDAY. THE SYSTEM HAS ALSO TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER.
KEY MESSAGES
1) TRANQUIL AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
2) OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY INTO
EARLY SUNDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WHERE ANY
REPEATED OR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR.
3) SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WITH MINOR RAIN CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
TEMPERATURES TREND SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER FOR FRIDAY AS WE GET
INTO RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE, REACHING
THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. STILL CARRYING
PATCHY FOG ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA EAST OF I-71
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY DUE TO FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS. ANY FOG SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE TYPICAL
LESS URBAN, LOWER-LYING AREAS. DRY WEATHER IS LARGELY FAVORED TO
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. DO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MENTIONED FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR NORTHERN OHIO. DAYTIME
HEATING MAY YIELD JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO
TRY DEVELOPING AS A LAKE BREEZE PUSHES INLAND.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW THAT WILL DIVE ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY THIS WEEKEND. THE SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST AND PULL A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES STILL SHOW
SOME SPREAD AMONG THE FINER DETAILS, BUT ARE BEGINNING TO
CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION. THERE HAS BEEN A MODEST TREND TO SHOW A
MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH, LEADING TO A SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND STRONGER
SURFACE LOW THAT TRACKS A BIT FARTHER NORTHWEST. OVERALL, THIS
LEADS TO AN INCREASE IN THE RAINFALL FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA
AND LEADS TO THE CHANCES FOR RAIN ON SUNDAY TRENDING HIGHER AS
THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SLOWER.
OVERALL, SOME SHOWERS MAY GRAZE NORTHWEST OHIO AND PERHAPS LAKE
ERIE AND ADJACENT LAKESHORE COUNTIES FARTHER EAST LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS WARM AIR AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION BEGINS INCREASING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.
RAIN POTENTIAL RAMPS UP FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE EASTERN OH INTO PA MAY BE DRY FOR
MOST OF THE DAY SATURDAY DUE TO A DRIER EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW,
PARTICULARLY WITH THE SYSTEM TRENDING A BIT SLOWER. RAIN
POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO PEAK LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY
WHEN WE GET INTO THE MOST FAVORABLE REGION FOR LARGE-SCALE LIFT
JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW. WITH
THE SYSTEM TRENDING A BIT SLOWER, THE EXPECTED DRYING TREND FROM
THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT HAS TRENDED A BIT SLOWER
AS WELL. WE SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL DRYING TREND BY SUNDAY NIGHT,
THOUGH THE DAY SUNDAY HAS TRENDED MORE UNSETTLED/WETTER OVERALL.
THE COMBINATION OF WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (<6.0C/KM) AND
FAIRLY LIMITED HEATING WILL KEEP A LID ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
CAN DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND, MEANING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE. THE TREND FOR A MORE AMPLIFIED
SYSTEM IN RECENT GUIDANCE DOES ALLOW DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO
INCREASE MODESTLY (TO AROUND 30KT) SUNDAY, AND THE SLOWER TREND
MAY GIVE TIME FOR A BIT MORE INSTABILITY TO BUILD AHEAD OF THE
CROSSING FRONT. SO, WE'LL MONITOR TRENDS FOR A LOWER-END SEVERE
RISK ACROSS OUR EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES SUNDAY. AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO NEARLY 2.00" LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY AMID SKINNY INSTABILITY PROFILES, RAINFALL RATES
WITHIN ANY CONVECTION WILL BECOME QUITE EFFICIENT. THE MODEST
TREND FOR A MORE AMPLIFIED SYSTEM DOES INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN
LATE SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY. WE'LL NEED TO MONITOR FOR ANY
LOCATIONS THAT SEE TRAINING OR REPEATED CONVECTION FOR LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING CONCERNS. THE AREA HAS DRIED OUT RECENTLY,
SO THE RAIN SHOULD LARGELY BE MORE BENEFICIAL THAN HARMFUL.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S THIS
WEEKEND (WARMER SATURDAY), WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AND HUMIDITY
LEVELS TRENDING UP FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW QUICKLY OUR WEEKEND
SYSTEM EXITS. MOST MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE A QUICK EXIT
BY SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY...THE GFS CUTS OFF A PORTION OF
THE WEEKEND SYSTEM, WITH THAT CUT-OFF LOW THEN LINGERING EARLY
NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE REGION. THE GFS IS VIEWED AS AN OUTLIER,
BUT THAT OVERALL EVOLUTION DOES CONTAIN SOME UNCERTAINTY.
THE FAVORED SOLUTION IS MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND LARGELY
DRY WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, BUT THE FORECAST
DOES CONTAIN SOME LOWER POPS DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
HOW QUICKLY THE WEEKEND SYSTEM EXITS, AND DUE TO SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW QUICKLY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND
CLEARS OUT SOME OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. AS RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN U.S. LATE NEXT WEEK A MORE
UNSETTLED WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW MAY TRY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN ANY SHOWER/STORM CHANCES THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK IS QUITE LOW THIS FAR OUT.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO IMPACT KCAK AND KYNG THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND EXTENT OPTED
TO HANDLE WITH VCSH AT THIS POINT. HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO BUILD
OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS
TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
MARINE
PLEASANT MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS LAKE ERIE TODAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS WITH A
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WILL RESULT IN WAVES LESS THAN 1 FOOT. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY SHIFTING WINDS TO EASTERLY AT 10-15 KNOTS FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND BEFORE BECOMING NORTHERLY LATE SUNDAY. WAVES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY LINGER IN THE 1-3 FOOT RANGE,
ALTHOUGH ONCE THE FLOW BECOMES ONSHORE A FEW HIGHER WAVES WILL
BE POSSIBLE. RIGHT NOW THE FORECAST KEEPS CONDITIONS SUB-
CRITERIA FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY, BUT WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR IN COMING DAYS FOR ANY POTENTIAL ENHANCEMENT IN THE
WINDS AND WAVES. BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN ALONG WITH CALM MARINE CONDITIONS.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...04
MARINE...04
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