670
FXUS61 KCLE 311818
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
218 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE. THE WEEKEND
CONTINUES TO TREND SLOWER, WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR MOST OF THE AREA
TO BE DRY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEASONABLE LAST DAY OF JULY IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SOME
ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES IN INTERIOR NORTHEAST OHIO THIS AFTERNOON.
2) SHOWERS AND STORMS ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WHERE ANY REPEATED OR TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR.
3) DAILY, SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW AND ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO ENTER
THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER TODAY IN THE 80S
FOR MOST WITH SOME ISOLATED HIGHS NEAR 90. THE COMBINATION OF
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES, ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S, AND A LAKE BREEZE COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS TO FORM IN INTERIOR NORTHEAST OHIO.
COVERAGE WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED, BUT WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW
POPS. FOR MOST, IT WILL JUST BE A DRY, TYPICAL LATE JULY DAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION STARTING
ON SATURDAY AND NOT FULLY EXIT UNTIL MONDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO TREND SLOWER WITH THE 00Z GUIDANCE AND MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA MAY END UP STAYING DRY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
ON SATURDAY WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BULK OF THE RAIN AND STORM
ACTIVITY SEEMS TO BE HONING IN ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THE ENVIRONMENT WITH INCOMING LOW AND UPPER TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL WITH
PW VALUES OVER 2 INCHES IN SOME MODEL SOUNDINGS IN NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO. STORMS SHOULD BE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE
REGION, DESPITE THE SLUGGISH LOW. HOWEVER, THERE IS ENOUGH
FORCING TO GET MULTIPLE STORMS TO DEVELOP AND THERE IS CONCERN
FOR TRAINING STORMS, WHICH COULD POSE A FLOOD RISK. PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA ARE IN A DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TO HIGHLIGHT THE HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY NIGHT. PORTIONS OF NE OH AND NW PA ARE IN
A DAY 3 SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AS RAIN WILL CONTINUE
ON SUNDAY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT
BY MONDAY AND HAVE POPS TRENDING DOWN SUNDAY EVENING AND ONWARD.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
FOR NEXT WEEK, THE UPPER TROUGH THAT SUPPORTED THE SYSTEM
THROUGH THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WILL BECOME ELONGATED AND THEN
GET PINCHED OFF FROM THE MAIN UPPER FLOW MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A CUT OFF UPPER LOW TO FORM OVER
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WITH THIS FEATURE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA, TOUGH TO BE HIGHLY CONFIDENT IN RAIN CHANCES.
HOWEVER, THIS FEATURE COULD PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT IN A
TYPICAL SUMMER ATMOSPHERE TO GENERATE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND MAYBE SOME STORM. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY RAIN WOULD BE
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH HELP FROM PEAK HEATING.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS
AROUND 4-6KFT LINGERING THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. A FEW LIGHT ARE POSSIBLE NEAR KMFD, KCAK, AND
KYNG OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST, WITH RAIN
SHOWERS OVERSPREADING THE AREA WEST TO EAST STARTING NEAR THE
I-75 CORRIDOR SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THERE MAY BE
PERIODIC NON-VFR CONDITIONS WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS BUT PREVAILING
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR STILL. LIGHTNING ISN'T EXPECTED
UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS OF SATURDAY, AND EVEN THEN THE
PROBABILITY IS LOW AT THIS POINT (~20%).
A LAKE BREEZE BRINGS NORTHERLY WINDS TO KCLE AND KERI THIS
AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP SATURDAY MORNING AND
APPROACH 10 KNOTS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MARINE
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, POTENTIALLY MOVING
EASTWARD SOUTH OF OR ACROSS LAKE ERIE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THERE
IS GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE REGARDING
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACK, WHICH GREATLY INFLUENCES THE WIND
AND WAVES FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF EAST TO
NORTHEAST FLOW SOMETIME SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, FOLLOWED
BY HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN NORTHEAST TO NORTH FLOW ON MONDAY. IT'S
BECOMINGLY INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF
15-20 KNOT ONSHORE FLOW WITH WAVES IN THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE,
ESPECIALLY EAST THE ISLAND TOWARDS THE CLEVELAND AREA, BUT THERE
IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT TIMING. WE WILL HAVE TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLY DANGEROUS CONDITIONS FOR
SWIMMERS AND SMALL CRAFT, ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL BASIN OF
LAKE ERIE.
CONDITIONS ON LAKE ERIE ARE LIKELY TO IMPROVE BY MIDWEEK.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...SAUNDERS
MARINE...SAUNDERS
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