650
FXUS61 KCLE 312348
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
748 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST
CYCLE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
2) UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK,
WITH PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
ASIDE FROM A FEW STRAY SHOWERS THAT COULD DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OHIO LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING, DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL
SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. A
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW AND ATTENDANT SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP
DURING THE DAYTIME WILL GENERALLY BE WEST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR,
PARTICULARITY IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
FROM FINDLAY TO MARION. PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
REST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET RAMPS UP
AND CONVERGENCE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION, AS PWAT VALUES INCREASE TO
1.75-2.00 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. HI-RES GUIDANCE SEEMS TO FOCUS
THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WEST OF THE AREA ON THE NORTHWEST FLANK OF
THE SURFACE LOW, BUT THIS PRECIP MAXIMA COULD SNEAK INTO THE
I-75 CORRIDOR BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION
OF THE SYSTEM. WPC IS HIGHLIGHTING THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE
AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE REGION SUNDAY, MID/UPPER
FLOW WILL INCREASE A BIT ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE TROUGH.
SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
SURFACE LOW SLOWLY PIVOTS EASTWARD. WPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT A
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
ON SUNDAY WITH THE COMBINATION OF SLOW MOVING/TRAINING STORMS
AND INTENSE RAINFALL RATES LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL. SPC IS HIGHLIGHTING AREAS EAST OF THE I-77 CORRIDOR
WITH A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. DEEP LAYER EFFECTIVE
SHEAR OF 30-35 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON, COMBINED WITH MLCAPE
VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG, COULD LEAD TO SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE CONVECTION TRACKS EAST OUT OF THE AREA INTO
THE EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE, AND A TORNADO OR
TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH LOW LCLS AND SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE
HODOGRAPHS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AS AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER TROUGH
CUTS OFF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWER/STORM CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE LOW
FILLS AND LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
THIS WILL ALSO KEEP CONDITIONS HUMID AND TEMPERATURES NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS. AREAS THAT SEE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND
COULD BE VULNERABLE TO AN INCREASED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING WITH
ANY SLOW MOVING OR TRAINING STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A FEW SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR OHIO THIS
EVENING, BUT ARE NOT AFFECTING ANY TAF SITES OR PRODUCING ANY
LIGHTNING. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE THROUGH 10PM/2Z. IT IS
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS THIS EVENING.
THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE WEST, AS APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
GRADUALLY BRINGS LOWER CEILINGS AND SHOWER/THUNDER POTENTIAL
FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY MAKE IT INTO
NORTHWEST OH PRE-DAWN SATURDAY. INCLUDED VCSH AT TOL/FDY WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER. RESTRICTIONS ARE UNLIKELY. THESE
SHOWERS MAY MAKE IT AS FAR EAST AS MFD/CAK EARLY SATURDAY, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR ANY INCLUSION. GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS ARRIVES FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. INITIAL ACTIVITY LOOKS HIT OR MISS WITH LIMITED
LIGHTNING POTENTIAL, SO FOR NOW BROUGHT IN THE SHOWERS BUT KEPT
PREVAILING CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIODS.
KEPT ANY SHOWERS OUT OF ERI AND YNG THROUGH 0Z. POTENTIAL FOR
LOWER CEILINGS, LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN WITH VSBY RESTRICTIONS, AND
ISOLATED LIGHTNING INCREASES FROM THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT,
BEYOND THE END OF THE TAFS.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT GENERALLY <5KT TONIGHT,
INCREASINGLY MODESTLY TO 5-12KT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON-VFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR NON-VFR CONTINUE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MARINE
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, POTENTIALLY MOVING
EASTWARD SOUTH OF OR ACROSS LAKE ERIE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THERE
IS GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE REGARDING
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACK, WHICH GREATLY INFLUENCES THE WIND
AND WAVES FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF EAST TO
NORTHEAST FLOW SOMETIME SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, FOLLOWED
BY HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN NORTHEAST TO NORTH FLOW ON MONDAY. IT'S
BECOMINGLY INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF
15-20 KNOT ONSHORE FLOW WITH WAVES IN THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE,
ESPECIALLY EAST THE ISLAND TOWARDS THE CLEVELAND AREA, BUT THERE
IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT TIMING. WE WILL HAVE TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLY DANGEROUS CONDITIONS FOR
SWIMMERS AND SMALL CRAFT, ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL BASIN OF
LAKE ERIE.
CONDITIONS ON LAKE ERIE ARE LIKELY TO IMPROVE BY MIDWEEK.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...SAUNDERS
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