814
FXUS61 KCLE 020059
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
859 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE RAINFALL FORECAST HAS TRENDED HIGHER FOR PORTIONS OF NE OH/NW PA
SUNDAY. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL AND THE RESULTING GREATEST FLOODING RISK IS STILL
RELATIVELY LOW AT THIS POINT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH
SOME FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY. ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
EVENING.
2) PERIODIC SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
UPDATE...
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE LOW HAS ORGANIZED
INTO A QLCS ACROSS SOUTHWEST OH THIS EVENING, WHERE SEVERAL
SEVERE WEATHER WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS
TO HAVE PEAKED IN INTENSITY, AND WILL BE MOVING INTO A GRADUALLY
MORE STABLE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS AS IT LIFTS TOWARDS NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL OHIO THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. WE'LL MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THESE STORMS AS THEY LIFT TOWARDS THE FINDLAY,
MARION, AND MT VERNON CORRIDOR, BUT IN GENERAL BELIEVE THE
LATEST SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM THE SPC, WHICH KEEPS
PROBABILITIES JUST TO OUR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST, STILL HOLDS TONIGHT.
MOST GUIDANCE REMAINS IN AGREEMENT THAT ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND DEFORMATION TO THE NORTH OF THE APPROACHING
SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT INTO THE VICINITY OF NORTHEAST IN,
NORTHWEST OH, AND FAR SOUTHEAST MI LATE TONIGHT AND PIVOT IN
THAT GENERAL AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING, FOCUSING
SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTION POSSIBLE. THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR EFFICIENT RAIN RATES IN THIS AREA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE LAST SEVERAL HRRR
RUNS HAVE CAUGHT ONTO THIS FEATURE AND SUGGEST A NARROW BAND OF
1-3" OF RAIN IS LIKELY WHERE THIS FEATURE PIVOTS, WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF POTENTIALLY UPWARDS OF 5" POSSIBLE WITH ANY
MORE INTENSE/STATIONARY CONVECTION. DID ADJUST THE FORECAST TO
INCREASE RAIN AMOUNTS IN THE TOLEDO AREA THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY.
CAN NOT RULE OUT THE NEED FOR A SHORT FUSED FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
TOLEDO AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IF WE CAN GAIN CONFIDENCE IN
THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND IN LOCALLY MORE
EXCESSIVE RAIN OCCURRING, THOUGH AT THIS EXACT MOMENT CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH ONE.
KEY MESSAGE 1...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST THROUGH
SUNDAY, BRINGING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN TO THE LOCAL AREA FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. ANY PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE START OF THIS EVENING WILL BE LIGHT, ALTHOUGH RAINFALL RATES
WILL LIKELY PICK UP AS BETTER MOISTURE LIFTS INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT, BUT SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT. BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING,
MOST SPOTS ACROSS THE AREA WILL SEE AT LEAST A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OF RAIN WITH LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF I-75 LIKELY
RECEIVING UP TO 0.75" OF RAIN. THERE ARE SOME SIGNALS FOR
TRAINING AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1-2" ALONG THE FAR
WESTERN FRINGE OF THE LOCAL AREA, ALTHOUGH THAT HIGHER
PRECIPITATION AXIS MAY BE TO THE WEST OF THE CWA. WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON WHERE SWATHS OF HEAVIER RAIN OCCUR, BUT IN
GENERAL THIS INITIAL ROUND OF RAIN WILL LARGELY SERVE AS A
PRIMER FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ON SUNDAY.
A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION (OR AT LEAST, LOWER COVERAGE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY) IS LIKELY SUNDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH-
CENTRAL OHIO. BY THE AFTERNOON, BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL
MOVE OVER THE REGION, ALLOWING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THIS WILL BE THE WINDOW FOR THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL AND LIKELY THE GREATEST FLASH FLOODING RISK.
MOST OF THE AREA WILL RECEIVE 0.5 TO 0.75" OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY
RECEIVING 2 OR MORE INCHES OF RAINFALL WHERE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE HIGHEST
RAIN AMOUNTS COULD FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE OH/NW PA WHICH
WOULD RESULT IN AN ENHANCED FLASH FLOODING RISK, BUT WILL NEED
TO SEE HOW HIGH RES MODELS TREND OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS. HAVE
OPTED AGAINST ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH WITH THIS UPDATE SINCE
CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL/GREATEST
TRAINING POTENTIAL IS STILL MEDIUM AT BEST. WOULD LIKE TO SEE
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN OCCURS TONIGHT BEFORE MAKING A FINAL
DECISION ON ANY HEADLINES. ON SUNDAY, THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2 OF 4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE LOCAL AREA.
THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. JET SUPPORT
WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MEANDERS EASTWARD INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY, RESULTING IN INCREASED SHEAR. THERE'S STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW MUCH WE DESTABILIZE GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORNING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. IF WE MANAGE TO
CLEAR OUT BETWEEN ROUNDS OF RAIN THEN INSTABILITY WILL BE
HIGHER, BUT ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/CLOUDS COULD RESULT IN LOWER
INSTABILITY AND A LOWER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. BASED ON THE
SHEAR PROFILE/WIND FIELD, ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OF
SEVERE WEATHER.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE LOW WILL FINALLY LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY,
ALTHOUGH PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGHING WILL RESULT CONTINUED
CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED ON TUESDAY BEFORE RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS
AN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST INTO THE AREA THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S
AND LOWS IN THE 60S ANTICIPATED.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO
THE REGION BRINGING SHOWER/THUNDER POTENTIAL ALONG WITH LOWER
CEILINGS. IN TERMS OF SHOWER/THUNDER POTENTIAL, A FEW SHOWERS
ARE ONGOING NEAR TOL, CLE, AND ERI AT 0Z AND LIFTING NORTH. A
LARGER BATCH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING
AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER POTENTIAL IS
NOT VERY HIGH, ESPECIALLY FARTHER EAST, THOUGH DO HAVE IT
MENTIONED IN SOME FORM FROM CLE-MFD POINTS WEST AS THERE WILL
LIKELY BE AT LEAST A BIT. ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS TOL WILL
LIKELY SEE A RELATIVE LULL SUNDAY MORNING IN A DRY SLOT, BEFORE
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER RE-DEVELOP AND DRIFT EAST-SOUTHEAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE EITHER A TEMPO OR PROB30 AT ALL SITES
DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING TO GIVE A WINDOW FOR WHEN
THIS CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS OR HEAVY DOWNPOURS CAN BRING IFR OR LOWER
VISIBILITY TO SITES DIRECTLY IMPACTED. CEILINGS WILL MAINLY FALL
TO MVFR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY, WITH SOME IFR POSSIBLE,
THOUGH IN GENERAL TRENDED THE CEILING FORECAST UPWARD SLIGHTLY
AT MOST SITES AS IT IS HARD TO GET WIDESPREAD/PROLONGED IFR
CEILINGS IN EARLY AUGUST. CEILINGS SHOULD RECOVER A BIT DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY, THOUGH MAINTAINED MVFR AT ALL SITES.
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY TURN NORTHERLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE REGION. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 5-12KT RANGE,
A BIT LIGHTER AT TIMES TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...LINGERING NON-VFR IN SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS SUNDAY
NIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
POTENTIAL FOR NON-VFR CONTINUE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MARINE
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY AROUND 10KTS TONIGHT,
INCREASING TO 15-20KTS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WESTERN AND CENTRAL
BASIN WAVE HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE TO 3-5FT SUNDAY NIGHT, DECREASING
TO 1-3FT AS NORTHEASTERLY WINDS PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS TURN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WEDNESDAY WITH WAVE HEIGHTS LESS THAN A FOOT.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15/SULLIVAN
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...26
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page