455
FXUS61 KCLE 151835
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
235 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT HAS INCREASED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OHIO. A
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY. THE
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO DECREASE FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT, FOCUSING MORE ON THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS
WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY RAIN MAY
PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE, PRIMARILY ON SUNDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR A TORNADO OR TWO.
2) THE NEXT WINDOW FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY WITH
A STRONG COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IS MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING JUST SOME LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO. THE MAIN SHOW FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WILL BE
COURTESY OF AN MCV MOVING THROUGH INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS WANING ACROSS OHIO AND INDIANA AND A DRY
SLOT WITH CLEARING HAS DEVELOPED, STRETCHING FROM FORT WAYNE TO JUST
NORTHWEST OF INDIANAPOLIS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME INSTABILITY TO
BUILD AND EVENTUALLY THIS MESOSCALE FEATURE TO GENERATE NEW
CONVECTION WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME THUNDER ACTIVITY. THE
TRAJECTORY OF THIS FEATURE AND ANY CONVECTION WILL BE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OVER 2 INCHES, RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AND EFFICIENT. WITH RECENT
RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA, THERE IS MORE SUSCEPTIBILITY TO FLOODING.
THEREFORE, THERE IS FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL THROUGH TONIGHT. HAVE
GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE MOST CONCERNING AREAS.
IN ADDITION, SOME OF THIS AREA IS CURRENTLY HIGHLIGHTED BY A
MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL BY WPC. THE SEVERE RISK FOR
TONIGHT CONTINUES TO TREND DOWN WITH RAIN WORKING OVER THE REGION
AND LIMITING THE OVERALL INSTABILITY. THERE REMAINS A MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM SPC FOR THE LOW END POTENTIAL FOR A DAMAGING
WIND GUST.
FOR SUNDAY, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT, MORE SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE. THERE COULD
BE A BRIEF BREAK IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS
THE MCV AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION LEAVES THE REGION. THIS COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME INSTABILITY TO BUILD AND PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT MORE
SUITABLE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY LATER IN THE DAY.
THE BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE THE CONTINUED HEAVY RAIN THREAT THAT
COULD HAVE SOME FLASH FLOODING IMPLICATIONS. THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH
MAY NEED TO HAVE SOME PORTIONS EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER, THERE
WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHTLY GREATER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS MORE
INSTABILITY IN A SLIGHTLY BETTER SHEARED ENVIRONMENT COULD PROVIDE
MORE FUEL FOR STORMS AND HELP PROVIDE MORE OF A DAMAGING WIND THREAT
OR POTENTIALLY A TORNADO OR TWO. MOST OF THE AREA IS A DAY 2
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM SPC WITH A SMALL SOUTH PORTION
OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY, BRINGING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA. THERE WILL
BE LESS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION COMPARED TO
RECENT DAYS AND LARGELY EXPECT ACTIVITY TO REMAIN GENERIC AND
SUB-SEVERE. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, THERE WILL BE A FIRM PATTERN
CHANGE TO MORE OF A LATE SUMMER/EARLY FALL AIR MASS WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S, LOWS IN THE 50S, AND LOW HUMIDITY.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
DETERIORATING SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH WESTERN OHIO CURRENTLY THAT
IS DROPPING VISIBILITY DOWN TO MVFR AND IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS,
IFR. CEILINGS IN ADDITION HAVE BEEN DROPPING TO MVFR AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH AND EXPECT CEILINGS TO STAY NON-VFR THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE AS THEY REACH KMFD AND
EXPECT MORE SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AROUND 00Z AND
PROGRESSING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL RESUME OVERNIGHT AND
COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY FOR KFDY, KMFD, AND KCAK, AND
ADDED IN A PROB30 GROUP TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS,
CEILINGS WILL STAY NON-VFR AND THERE IS PROBABILITY OF VISIBILITY
BEING NON-VFR DUE TO A FAIRLY SATURATED. SHOWERS MAY BREAK AROUND
12Z TOMORROW MORNING AND RETURN IN THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH CURRENTLY
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT. WINDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
AND TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS AND FAIRLY VARIABLE,
THOUGH PREDOMINANTLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. TOMORROW, WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO BE OUT OF THE WEST AT 5-10 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP
TO 15-20 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. NON-VFR POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
WINDS ACROSS LAKE ERIE ARE FAIRLY LIGHT AT AROUND 5 KNOTS AND
VARIABLE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAKE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AND HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THESE STORMS. OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-
15 KNOTS AND BE PREDOMINANTLY OUT OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST THEN SHIFT
TO THE SOUTH AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. WAVES
WILL BE 2 FEET OR LESS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL
PASS OVER THE LAKE SUNDAY NIGHT AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO BE OUT OF
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND 10-15 KNOTS AND WAVES WILL BUILD TO 1-3
FEET. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY DOWN TO 5-10
KNOTS, THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AT 10-15 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERING
THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR OHZ017>019-027>032-
036>038-047.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...23
MARINE...23
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