574
FXUS61 KCLE 160556
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
156 AM EDT SUN AUG 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT HAS INCREASED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OHIO. A
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY. THE
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO DECREASE FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT, FOCUSING MORE ON THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS
WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY RAIN MAY
PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE, PRIMARILY ON SUNDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR A TORNADO OR TWO.
2) THE NEXT WINDOW FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY WITH
A STRONG COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IS MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING JUST SOME LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO. THE MAIN SHOW FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WILL BE
COURTESY OF AN MCV MOVING THROUGH INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS WANING ACROSS OHIO AND INDIANA AND A DRY
SLOT WITH CLEARING HAS DEVELOPED, STRETCHING FROM FORT WAYNE TO JUST
NORTHWEST OF INDIANAPOLIS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME INSTABILITY TO
BUILD AND EVENTUALLY THIS MESOSCALE FEATURE TO GENERATE NEW
CONVECTION WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME THUNDER ACTIVITY. THE
TRAJECTORY OF THIS FEATURE AND ANY CONVECTION WILL BE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OVER 2 INCHES, RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AND EFFICIENT. WITH RECENT
RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA, THERE IS MORE SUSCEPTIBILITY TO FLOODING.
THEREFORE, THERE IS FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL THROUGH TONIGHT. HAVE
GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE MOST CONCERNING AREAS.
IN ADDITION, SOME OF THIS AREA IS CURRENTLY HIGHLIGHTED BY A
MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL BY WPC. THE SEVERE RISK FOR
TONIGHT CONTINUES TO TREND DOWN WITH RAIN WORKING OVER THE REGION
AND LIMITING THE OVERALL INSTABILITY. THERE REMAINS A MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM SPC FOR THE LOW END POTENTIAL FOR A DAMAGING
WIND GUST.
FOR SUNDAY, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT, MORE SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE. THERE COULD
BE A BRIEF BREAK IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS
THE MCV AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION LEAVES THE REGION. THIS COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME INSTABILITY TO BUILD AND PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT MORE
SUITABLE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY LATER IN THE DAY.
THE BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE THE CONTINUED HEAVY RAIN THREAT THAT
COULD HAVE SOME FLASH FLOODING IMPLICATIONS. THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH
MAY NEED TO HAVE SOME PORTIONS EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER, THERE
WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHTLY GREATER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS MORE
INSTABILITY IN A SLIGHTLY BETTER SHEARED ENVIRONMENT COULD PROVIDE
MORE FUEL FOR STORMS AND HELP PROVIDE MORE OF A DAMAGING WIND THREAT
OR POTENTIALLY A TORNADO OR TWO. MOST OF THE AREA IS A DAY 2
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM SPC WITH A SMALL SOUTH PORTION
OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY, BRINGING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA. THERE WILL
BE LESS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION COMPARED TO
RECENT DAYS AND LARGELY EXPECT ACTIVITY TO REMAIN GENERIC AND
SUB-SEVERE. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, THERE WILL BE A FIRM PATTERN
CHANGE TO MORE OF A LATE SUMMER/EARLY FALL AIR MASS WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S, LOWS IN THE 50S, AND LOW HUMIDITY.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH EARLY MORNING BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST AT AROUND
12Z. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE EAST OF KTOL/KFDY AND
SOUTH OF KCLE/KERI, BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY CLIP KCLE EARLY THIS
MORNING. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG WILL
DEVELOP BY EARLY MORNING SO HAVE WIDESPREAD MVFR AT MOST
TERMINALS THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY INTO THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
THERE WILL LIKELY BE PERIODS OF VFR CONDITIONS WHICH MAY PROMPT
AMENDMENTS/FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS. LOCALIZED IFR (AND POSSIBLY
LIFR) CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY. THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE VICINITY OF KTOL/KFDY BY MID TO
LATE MORNING BEFORE REACHING EASTERN TERMINALS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF SHOWERS/STORMS SO HAVE PREVAILING SHOWERS WITH
PROB30 GROUPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE TIME BEING. ANY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD PRODUCE NON-VFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP AT EASTERN
TERMINALS BEHIND THE PRECIP THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED WINDS INCREASING TO ABOUT 10 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. PERIODIC GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING, PRIMARILY AT KTOL/KFDY/KMFD.
WIND GUSTS MAY BE VARIABLE AND HIGHER IN THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AFTER
00Z.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LOWER
CEILINGS ACROSS NE OH AND NW PA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
NON-VFR POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
WINDS ON LAKE ERIE WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE DAY TODAY BEFORE BECOMING
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND A COLD FRONT BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. FLOW
BRIEFLY BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY AND EXPECT SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS
TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND DIMINISH BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THURSDAY. AT THIS POINT, MARINE HEADLINES ARE NOT
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ017>019-027>032-
036>038-047.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...15
MARINE...15
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