531
FXUS61 KCLE 160726
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
326 AM EDT SUN AUG 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS
DECREASING, DUE TO HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNT DISPLACED JUST SOUTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE, THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. HEAVY RAIN WILL STILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD POSE AN ISOLATED,
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD RISK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH HEAVY RAIN POTENTIALLY LEADING TO LOCALIZED
FLOODING. A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS.
2) A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN MCV LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACCOMPANY
THIS MCV AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE THIS MORNING BEFORE THE
MCV DEPARTS TO THE EAST BY SUNRISE. VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY
SHOULD PREVENT ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN AND SUBSEQUENT FLASH FLOOD
THREAT THROUGH MOST OF THIS MORNING. THEREFORE, THE FLOOD WATCH
HAS BEEN CANCELLED A FEW HOURS EARLY.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS
AND WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON. MOST HI-RES MODELS ARE KEYING IN CONVECTION
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP NEAR THE I-75 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, AND GROWING UPSCALE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REST OF THE AREA. SUFFICIENT BUILD-UP OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
AND THE PRESENCE OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 20-30 KNOTS SHOULD
SUPPORT A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. STRONG GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD.
AN EXTREMELY HUMID AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY PWAT IN THE 2-2.25"
RANGE AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WILL SUPPORT
EFFICIENT, HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT TRAVERSES
THE AREA. PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
PREVENT A WIDESPREAD FLOODING ISSUE, BUT PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE
AREAS (SUCH AS URBAN AREAS, OR LOCATIONS THAT HAVE RECEIVED
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THE PAST FEW DAYS) COULD POSE A LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOOD RISK.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IMPACTING
THE REGION. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN AREA/TIMING,
WITH POPS INCREASING TO 60-80% AREAWIDE, PARTICULARLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SEVERE WEATHER IS A POSSIBILITY, THOUGH ITS
QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY THERE WILL BE TO WORK WITH.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH EARLY MORNING BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST AT AROUND
12Z. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE EAST OF KTOL/KFDY AND
SOUTH OF KCLE/KERI, BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY CLIP KCLE EARLY THIS
MORNING. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG WILL
DEVELOP BY EARLY MORNING SO HAVE WIDESPREAD MVFR AT MOST
TERMINALS THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY INTO THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
THERE WILL LIKELY BE PERIODS OF VFR CONDITIONS WHICH MAY PROMPT
AMENDMENTS/FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS. LOCALIZED IFR (AND POSSIBLY
LIFR) CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY. THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE VICINITY OF KTOL/KFDY BY MID TO
LATE MORNING BEFORE REACHING EASTERN TERMINALS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF SHOWERS/STORMS SO HAVE PREVAILING SHOWERS WITH
PROB30 GROUPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE TIME BEING. ANY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD PRODUCE NON-VFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP AT EASTERN
TERMINALS BEHIND THE PRECIP THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED WINDS INCREASING TO ABOUT 10 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. PERIODIC GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING, PRIMARILY AT KTOL/KFDY/KMFD.
WIND GUSTS MAY BE VARIABLE AND HIGHER IN THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AFTER
00Z.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LOWER
CEILINGS ACROSS NE OH AND NW PA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
NON-VFR POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
WINDS ON LAKE ERIE WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE DAY TODAY BEFORE BECOMING
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND A COLD FRONT BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. FLOW
BRIEFLY BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY AND EXPECT SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS
TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND DIMINISH BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THURSDAY. AT THIS POINT, MARINE HEADLINES ARE NOT
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SAUNDERS
AVIATION...15
MARINE...15
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