163
FXUS61 KCLE 170627
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
227 AM EDT MON AUG 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED
WITH THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE WITH
A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NEAR THE FRONT IN SOUTHERN ZONES DURING
PEAK DIURNAL HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL
BE TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA SO SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
FROM THERE, DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
TUESDAY NIGHT. BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF A SOUTHEASTWARD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS
WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON AND THERE MAY BE SOME CONVECTION INLAND FROM
LAKE ERIE DURING THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL, INSTABILITY SEEMS
MEAGER IN COMPARISON TO RECENT DAYS AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
QPF WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT SO THE CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER AND
HEAVY RAINFALL ARE LOW AT THIS POINT. A DRY AND COOLER AIR MASS
WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S EXPECTED.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
OVERCAST CONDITIONS LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH
WIDELY VARIABLE CEILINGS RANGING FROM VFR 5,000 FT CEILINGS TO
LIFR CEILINGS AS LOW AS 200 FT. PATCHY BR/FG IS ALSO EXPECTED.
LIFR IS MOST LIKELY WHERE GREATEST RAIN OCCURED YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON, INCLUDING NEAR KYNG AND KCAK.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE MORNING HOURS, GIVING WAY TO SCT/BKN CLOUDS IN THE
3,000-5,000 FT RANGE. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ARE STARTING SOUTHWEST TO WEST
AROUND 10 KNOTS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD
FRONT OVERNIGHT WITH 10 TO 15 KTS OF ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED.
WAVES MAY BUMP UP A BIT, BUT INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY
TAPER OFF THE NORTHWEST FLOW TO 10 KTS OR LESS ON MONDAY AND
ALLOW FOR ANY WAVES TO DIMINISH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH
OF THE LAKE FOR TUESDAY AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN TO
THE LAKE. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE LAKE FOR
WEDNESDAY, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AND WINDS
SHIFTING FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND MAINTAIN LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...SAUNDERS
MARINE...SEFCOVIC
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