697
FXUS61 KCLE 171111
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
711 AM EDT MON AUG 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED
WITH THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE WITH
A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NEAR THE FRONT IN SOUTHERN ZONES DURING
PEAK DIURNAL HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL
BE TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA SO SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
FROM THERE, DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
TUESDAY NIGHT. BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF A SOUTHEASTWARD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS
WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON AND THERE MAY BE SOME CONVECTION INLAND FROM
LAKE ERIE DURING THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL, INSTABILITY SEEMS
MEAGER IN COMPARISON TO RECENT DAYS AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
QPF WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT SO THE CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER AND
HEAVY RAINFALL ARE LOW AT THIS POINT. A DRY AND COOLER AIR MASS
WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S EXPECTED.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE FORECAST PERIOD BEINGS WITH OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH
VARIABLE CEILINGS RANGING FROM 500 FT TO 5,000+ FT. A COLD FRONT
WILL WORK ITS WAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON, PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
BUT AS THE FRONT WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA, CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE, GIVING WAY TO SCT/BKN CLOUDS IN THE 3,000-5,000
FT RANGE. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. PATCHY BR/FG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
NORTH FLOW AROUND 15 KNOTS THIS MORNING MAY PRODUCE WAVES IN THE
2 TO 3 FT RANGE IN THE CENTRAL BASIN OF LAKE ERIE, WITH A
MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, WITH
GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WITH WIND SPEEDS PEAKING IN THE 15-20
KNOT RANGE TUESDAY NIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR 2-3 FT
WAVES IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASINS OF LAKE ERIE, WITH A LOW
CHANCE OF 4 FT WAVES IF WE GET A FEW HOURS OF 20 KNOT WINDS.
THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LAKE ON WEDNESDAY, WITH WINDS TURNING
NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THEN NORTHEAST THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...SAUNDERS
MARINE...SAUNDERS
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