482
FXUS61 KCLE 171835
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
235 PM EDT MON AUG 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY WITH QUIET WEATHER
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
2) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
LOW PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXITS INTO
NORTHEASTERN CANADA AS THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT DRIFTS TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILDS
INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE SURFACE. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT
TO THE EAST TO BE OVERHEAD, THEN EXIT TO THE EAST BY TUESDAY
EVENING. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE
LAKESHORE TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO THE SATURATED LOW LEVELS AND GROUND
FROM THE PREVIOUS DAYS PRECIPITATION AND A FAIRLY STABLE ATMOSPHERE
UNDERNEATH THE HIGH. HUMIDITY WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY
AND DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S PROVIDING SOME RELIEF TO THE
"STICKY" AIR WE'VE HAD OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL
STAY CONSISTENT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
AND TUESDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS A LITTLE COOLER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN
AT UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY LATE
TUESDAY EVENING AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES. IN GENERAL, THIS SYSTEM IS TRENDING TO BE ON THE WEAKER
SIDE AND GIVEN THAT IT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE MIDDAY, POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS ON
THE LOW END. INSTABILITY WILL BE LOW WITH THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
COUNTIES OF THE AREA BEING ON THE HIGHER END OF THAT. WITH THAT,
CURRENTLY ONLY GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MIDDAY
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE
THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL OHIO AS SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOW PRESSURE WILL ENTER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION SATURDAY MORNING AND BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY WITH THAT
TIMING, THERE MAY BE SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS INSTABILITY WILL HAVE THE CHANCE TO
INCREASE WITH DAYTIME HEATING. A FEW AI MODELS ARE ALSO PICKING UP
ON THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL, HIGHLIGHTING THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS
OF THE AREA. GIVEN THAT THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS AWAY, THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND MUCH OF THE DETAILS SO A SHIFT ONE WAY OR
THE OTHER COULD IMPACT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
OVER THE COMING DAYS TO SEE HOW THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THERE REMAINS SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL CEILINGS 1500-2500 FT
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS
HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR BEHIND AN EASTWARD TRACKING COLD FRONT.
EXPECT FOR LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS TO IMPROVE TO VFR AS THE COLD
FRONT EXITS TO THE EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. VFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. PATCHY MIST/FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PRIMARILY MVFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED IN ANY BR/FG WITH IFR POSSIBLE AT MFD.
NORTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BEFORE BECOMING WESTERLY AT 5-10 KNOTS LATE
IN THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
NORTH FLOW AROUND 15 KNOTS THIS MORNING MAY PRODUCE WAVES IN THE
2 TO 3 FT RANGE IN THE CENTRAL BASIN OF LAKE ERIE, WITH A
MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, WITH
GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WITH WIND SPEEDS PEAKING IN THE 15-20
KNOT RANGE TUESDAY NIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR 2-3 FT
WAVES IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASINS OF LAKE ERIE, WITH A LOW
CHANCE OF 4 FT WAVES IF WE GET A FEW HOURS OF 20 KNOT WINDS.
THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LAKE ON WEDNESDAY, WITH WINDS TURNING
NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THEN NORTHEAST THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION...13
MARINE...SAUNDERS
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