835
FXUS61 KCLE 180640
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
240 AM EDT TUE AUG 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY.
2) AFTER A DRY PERIOD LATE WEEK, UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TO THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER AND LOW HUMIDITY TODAY. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THERE'S STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAST THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THAT TIME, BUT THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE OF ALL LOCATIONS SEEING AT
LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN AT SOME POINT ON WEDNESDAY. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE SOME DESTABILIZATION DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY,
ALTHOUGH THE MAGNITUDE IS UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE EARLY-MORNING
ARRIVAL OF RAIN AND CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER
SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE BY AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS
LOW AT THIS POINT SINCE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MAY NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY.
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG/SOUTH OF US-30 INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS DRYING OUT ON THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK, BUT THE
FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND IS TRENDING WETTER DUE TO AN UPPER
TROUGH PIVOTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY/SUNDAY. PERIODIC
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE MOST
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING, ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY IN THE COVERAGE/TIMING DUE TO SOMEWHAT LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE SPEED/MAGNITUDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. BASED ON
LATEST GUIDANCE, IT LOOKS THE MOST WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH PRECIP POSSIBLY
BECOMING MORE LAKE-ENHANCED ON SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES
EAST ACROSS THE REGION. SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN CAN'T BE
RULED OUT OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO DIG
INTO THE POTENTIAL HAZARDS AND TIMING THIS EARLY IN THE FORECAST
CYCLE.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SCATTERED TO
BROKEN UPPER-LEVEL CIRRUS. PATCHY BR/FG IS POSSIBLE 09Z AND 13Z
AWAY FROM THE LAKE, AND IS MOST LIKELY AT KMFD AND KYNG. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5 TO 8 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
NORTH WINDS 10-15 KNOTS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS WITH
THE PASSING COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO WAVE HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 2-3 FEET IN THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN BASINS OF THE LAKE. WINDS SHIFT NORTHERLY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY EVENING AND NORTHEASTERLY BY THURSDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...SAUNDERS
MARINE...13
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