220
FXUS61 KCLE 181818
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
218 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THERE WERE NO CHANGES NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
2) AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS THIS WEEKEND WITH PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY..
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE TODAY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING AROUND MIDNIGHT FOR
THE TOLEDO AREA AND THEN SPREADING EAST INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
BEST SUPPORT FOR SHOWER DEVELOP SHOULD BE ALONG AND NORTH OF US-30
INITIALLY BEFORE BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE REMAINS MINIMAL THUNDER POTENTIAL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE AIRMASS REMAINS FAIRLY STABLE, BUT AS
DIURNAL HEATING INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON CHANCES OF THUNDER WILL
INCREASE. AT THIS POINT, GIVEN THE DISJOINTED TIMING BETWEEN THE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND THE SURFACE HEATING, THE SEVERE POTENTIAL
REMAINS LIMITED. CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT BY THURSDAY MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. HIGHS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE
MID 70 TO LOW 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WILL PUSH EAST THIS WEEKEND AS A DEEPENING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA. MODELS ARE BECOMING
MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST LATE SATURDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF IT. THIS WOULD PUT
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH EXACT TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN, GIVEN THE
STRONG DYNAMICS INCLUDING A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET AND VORT MAX,
WILL LIKELY SEE THUNDERSTORMS AT SOME POINT. IF THE BEST SYNOPTIC
ENERGY COINCIDES WITH THE BEST DIURNAL HEATING, SOME OF THESE STORMS
MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM
IN THE COMING DAYS TO DETERMINE THE POTENTIAL SEVERE RISK THIS
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONSISTENT, CLIMBING
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR HIGHS AND FALLING INTO THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVALENT ACROSS THE REGION. THERE ARE SOME
DIURNAL CLOUDS FORMING A BROKEN CEILING FROM KFDY EASTWARD AT
AROUND 040-050. THIS WILL PERSIST TO AROUND 00Z WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL
CEILINGS MOVES INTO THE REGION. WEAKENING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING THAT MAY IMPACT TERMINALS,
THOUGH MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE CEILINGS LOWERING TO AROUND 050. SHOWERS
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY KCLE AND THE EASTERN TERMINALS WILL REMAIN DRY
OUTSIDE OF KERI. CEILINGS WILL PROGRESSIVELY DROP THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW DOWN TO MVFR CONDITIONS AND WILL LAST THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD,
GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT AROUND 5 KNOTS THIS EVENING THEN
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
SHIFT BACK OUT OF THE WEST AT 5-10 KNOTS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW
WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE CONDITIONS ARE REPLACED BY SOUTHWEST WINDS AS
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE SOUTH. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST, SHOULD SEE SOUTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN TO
AROUND 15 KNOTS, WITH SOME LOW POTENTIAL TO BRIEFLY REACH 20
KNOTS AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WAVES BUILD TO A PEAK OF 2-3 FT IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN OF LAKE ERIE WEDNESDAY MORNING. IF WE
CAN GET 20 KNOTS, THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR 4 FT WAVES DESPITE
THE WIND DIRECTION BEING NEAR PARALLEL TO THE SHORELINE. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THIS PERIOD FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND BEACH
HAZARD STATEMENTS.
ADDITIONALLY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT INTO PARTS OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. OVERALL RISK IS LOW BUT
CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW STRONGER WIND GUST IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE.
THE COLD FRONT CROSS LAKE ERIE WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH WINDS
QUICKLY BECOMING NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH QUIET WEATHER
CONDITIONS ON LAKE ERIE.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...23
MARINE...SAUNDERS
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