439
FXUS61 KCLE 190028
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
828 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THERE WERE NO CHANGES NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
2) AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS THIS WEEKEND WITH PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY..
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE TODAY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING AROUND MIDNIGHT FOR
THE TOLEDO AREA AND THEN SPREADING EAST INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
BEST SUPPORT FOR SHOWER DEVELOP SHOULD BE ALONG AND NORTH OF US-30
INITIALLY BEFORE BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE REMAINS MINIMAL THUNDER POTENTIAL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE AIRMASS REMAINS FAIRLY STABLE, BUT AS
DIURNAL HEATING INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON CHANCES OF THUNDER WILL
INCREASE. AT THIS POINT, GIVEN THE DISJOINTED TIMING BETWEEN THE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND THE SURFACE HEATING, THE SEVERE POTENTIAL
REMAINS LIMITED. CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT BY THURSDAY MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. HIGHS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE
MID 70 TO LOW 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WILL PUSH EAST THIS WEEKEND AS A DEEPENING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA. MODELS ARE BECOMING
MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST LATE SATURDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF IT. THIS WOULD PUT
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH EXACT TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN, GIVEN THE
STRONG DYNAMICS INCLUDING A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET AND VORT MAX,
WILL LIKELY SEE THUNDERSTORMS AT SOME POINT. IF THE BEST SYNOPTIC
ENERGY COINCIDES WITH THE BEST DIURNAL HEATING, SOME OF THESE STORMS
MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM
IN THE COMING DAYS TO DETERMINE THE POTENTIAL SEVERE RISK THIS
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONSISTENT, CLIMBING
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR HIGHS AND FALLING INTO THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
CONDITIONS ARE STARTING OUT VFR WITH SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND BRING DECREASING CEILING HEIGHTS AND
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THERE WILL BE A
WINDOW FOR SOME MVFR CEILINGS BEHIND THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY. SOME MORE RAIN MAY ENTER FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LOW. WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT COULD BE
BRIEFLY WESTERLY AT TIMES.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
CONDITIONS ACROSS LAKE ERIE WILL REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET AS WINDS
WITH BE OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS
EVENING, THEN INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WAVES WILL BE CHOPPY, THOUGH THE HIGHEST
WAVES 2 TO 4 FEET WILL STAY IN THE OPEN WATERS WITH THE NEAR
SHORE SEEING 2 FEET OR LESS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO BE
NORTHERLY BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AND DIMINISH TO 5 TO
10 KNOTS AND PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WAVES WILL BE 1 TO
3 FEET AND POSSIBLY AROUND 4 FEET IN THE NEAR SHORE WITH THE
FRONT AND RIGHT AFTER, THEN WILL DIMINISH. FRIDAY, WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO BE SOUTHERLY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS, THEN SHIFT TO BE
NORTHWESTERLY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT,
INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
LAKE ERIE WEDNESDAY AND SATURDAY THAT COULD BRING HIGHER WINDS
AND WAVES WITHIN THE STORMS. THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN
THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE LAKE ON SATURDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...SEFCOVIC
MARINE...23
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